Neusons, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

930
FXUS61 KAKQ 190739
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
339 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles overhead today, with a brief (but
noticeable) warmup during the day. A backdoor front drops
southward through the area Saturday, bringing a return to
seasonably cool and cloudy conditions this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Patchy fog has begun to develop across the area.
- Dry and seasonably warm today.
A weak NW-SE ridge axis sets up over the area today allowing for
weak flow aloft and surface high pressure to remain over the area.
With this, calm winds has allowed for patchy ground fog to develop
over the area. Current observations are reporting 5 mile
visibility or less, with some pockets of dense fog possible.
Will continue to monitor early this morning to assess the need
for an SPS or dense fog advisory. Once the fog dissipates after
sunrise, mostly sunny skies will return for the day.
Temperatures will be warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s
(cooler along the coast as sea breezes dominate the winds).
Overnight lows will be similar to this morning in the lower 60s.
Some patchy fog could develop tomorrow morning as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- A backdoor cold front crosses the area on Saturday, dropping temperatures
  to near to slightly below average for the weekend with mainly
  dry weather.
Strong (1030+ mb) high pressure builds down in Quebec and northern
New England early Saturday. This synoptic pattern will push a
southward-moving backdoor cold front through the area early
Saturday. This front will be mostly dry with only a slight
chance of precip across the piedmont Saturday afternoon. Cooler
temperatures will follow in the wake of the front with high
temperatures in the upper 70s across the Eastern Shore and lower
80s elsewhere (further south may see mid 80s as the front
slowly moves N-S) on Saturday. Sunday, high temperatures will be
slightly cooler with highs in the mid 70s N/NE and upper 70s
elsewhere... just below the average for the time of year. Low
temperatures will remain similar in the lower 60s. The front
will likely stall somewhere near the area and the coastal trough
offshore the Carolinas will likely strengthen allowing for a
coastal low pressure to form. This could bring extra moisture to
the area Sunday and Monday, but the confidence is low at this
time. With this in mind, have only included slight chance of
precip Sunday into Monday near the coast. If the low were to
materialize more, it could result in an under-performance in
high temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Mainly dry with near to slightly above average temperatures early
  next week.
- Rain chances and cooler temperatures potentially return by the
  middle and end of next week.
Upper heights rise a bit early next week as ridging builds offshore
of the SE CONUS coast and a strong upper low dives into the central
Plains. The model guidance continues to show the high pressure to
the south of the area by early next week. This would favor a warming
trend due to developing return flow out of the S. Highs Monday
around 80 F, with low-mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances
return by the middle to later portions of next week due to the
approaching upper low and trough, which is expected to advance
eastward through the MS Valley during the middle and end of next
week as high pressure returns to the Quebec region. This will bring
slightly below average temperatures to the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 AM EDT Friday...
Calm winds have allowed for some patchy ground fog to develop across
the southern terminals. ECG and PHF have been bouncing around LIFR
and IFR VIS (occasionally MVFR or higher at the five minute
interval). According to local cameras, the fog at PHF seems to be
isolated to near the terminal. Have included a TEMPO for PHF for
1/2SM VIS through 09z/19, which may need an extension. Otherwise,
expecting ECG and PHF to remain degraded until sunrise. ORF and SBY
will likely see some lowered VIS right before sunrise ~11z, with ORF
at IFR conditions and SBY at MVFR conditions. RIC will likely stay
VFR throughout the early morning. High pressure remains in control
causing light winds through the TAF period.
Outlook: Another chance for localized patchy fog Saturday morning,
but otherwise dry/VFR conditions expected into Saturday. A back door
cold front will move into the area Saturday night with sub-VFR CIGs
possible behind the front.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Benign marine conditions continue through tonight.
- A back door cold front crosses the coast early Saturday and this
will bring the potential for SCA conditions by Saturday night and
Sunday as high pressure builds to the north.
Weak high pressure is centered over the Carolinas early this
morning. The wind is WSW 5-10kt. Seas are ~2ft, with ~1ft waves in
the Ches. Bay. Weak high pressure remains in vicinity of the Mid-
Atlantic coast today into tonight. The wind will primarily be S to
SW less than 10kt, with a late aftn/early evening shift to S to SE.
Seas remain ~2ft with ~1ft waves in the Ches. Bay. A backdoor cold
front crosses the coast early Saturday as 1030mb high pressure
builds SE near the QB/ON border. This area of high pressure then
builds across New England and Atlantic Canada Saturday night into
Sunday. This combined with an inverted trough/weak surface low off
the Carolina coast will result in a tightening pressure gradient
later Saturday night into Sunday. The initial wind shift to NE
Saturday will only be 5-10kt, but will then increase to 10-15kt
later in the aftn. By later Saturday night and Sunday a NE wind is
expected to increase to 15-20kt with gusts approaching 25kt for the
ocean, lower Ches. Bay, lower James River, and the Currituck Sound.
Seas build to 4-6ft, with 2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay, and
potentially 3-4ft at the mouth of the Bay. SCAs are likely for the
coastal Atlantic (especially for seas) as well as the lower Ches.
Bay, lower James River, and Currituck Sound. Of note, the 19/00z NAM
has a more distinct surface low and produces high-end SCA conditions
S of Parramore Is. and including the lower Ches. Bay. However, at
this time, local wind probs for wind gusts > 25kt are 30-40% over
the ocean S of Parramore Is., and less than 20% for the lower Bay.
The pressure gradient relaxes early next week as high pressure
builds S into the region and then nudges offshore by midweek. Seas
will be slow to subside Monday, but sub-SCA conditions should
gradually return and then prevail for the entire marine area by the
middle of next week.
A low risk of rip currents is expected today for all area beaches.
For now, a low risk has been maintained for Saturday as the NE wind
will initially be slow to increase. The current outlook for Sunday
is moderate. However, the risk may jump to high depending on how
strong the NE wind is at the coast and how quickly nearshore waves
build to 4-5ft.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC/SW
AVIATION...KMC/RHR
MARINE...AJZ

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion