New Almelo, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

367
FXUS63 KGLD 072313
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
513 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered thunderstorms developing on the Palmer Divide in
  Colorado may track east toward the Kansas border this evening.
  An isolated severe storm capable of producing quarter size
  hail is possible, mainly south of I-70 in CO between 5-9 PM
  MDT. An isolated severe storm could develop in vicinity of
  Greeley County, KS ~5-7 pm MDT, though.. development may
  largely, or entirely, be confined south and southwest of
  Greeley County.
- The upcoming week is forecast to see warmer temperatures
  generally in the 80s and 90s. A few storms are possible
  during the afternoon and evening hours on Monday, Tuesday and
  Wednesday. An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out,
  mainly on Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 142 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Today, a 500 mb shortwave trough is rippling across a ridge
over the Rockies. This has been causing the showers we`ve
experienced this morning, which look to continue into the mid
afternoon, likely drying up in the southeastern CWA around
21-0Z. As the day progresses, the shortwave will move more
solidly into the CWA and create a second wave of precipitation,
entering the CWA around 22- 0Z. The RAP, NAMNest, and HRRR are
all showing a fairly similar story of two areas of focus for
this evening. The 12Z HRRR is handling the current temperatures
best, which look to be the key ingredient in today`s convection
potential. Overnight temperatures look to cool to around 60.
The less widespread area is along and south of U.S. 40. This
area looks to start firing storms along and west of the CO/KS
border and move to the east-southeast, potentially impacting
Greeley and Wichita counties. This set of storms will likely
have a moderate amount of CAPE to work with as the clouds and
precipitation this morning have kept temperatures in this area
fairly cool. That being said, there is some WAA pushing into the
area, which is clearing out any remaining clouds. Current
expectations are around 1,500 to 2,200 J/kg of MU/MLCAPE. Shear
does not look to be a limiting factor; in the 0-3 shear is only
15 kts, but the directional change in this level is very strong
with near surface coming out of about 150 degrees and 3-3.5
winds coming in around 280 degrees. Between 3.5 and 8 km, speed
shear will dominate, leading to a moderate ~30 kts of effective
shear. This could support hail up around 0.75-1.25 inch hail,
but likely in the 0.25-0.75 inch range. 0-1 shear is around 10-
15 kts, but if the LLJ speeds up, 15-25 kts 0-1 shear would be
possible, and could support a brief tornado. To curb the hype,
the best instability could (50%) be south of the CWA,
potentially removed from the better forcing and ML-LCL looks to
hover around 1,500-2,200m AGL. This leads to confidence in any
severe weather from this area to hover around 10-15% and
confidence this area will form severe weather in the GLD CWA
around 5%.
The northern area looks to be a bit more widespread and
questionable. While most CAMs are really agreeing on the
southern storms, the northern storms are resolving differently
across most guidance. All in all, there looks to be be about 500
J/kg less CAPE and about 75% of the shear in the northern
environment for these storms to work with. However, the stronger
500mb forcing will accompany these storms. With that, hail
looks to be the main hazard and the tornadic threat drops to
around 1%. There is also a 2-5% chance a QLCS could form and
lead to a bowing segment, leading to a few 60 MPH gusts.
The severe threat from these storms looks to end around 6-8Z.
Following that, around 10-12Z, there is a 20-30% chance
additional storms will form along the eastern edges of the CWA
the "cooler" airmass develops a tighter boundary. This would
likely only impact Norton and Graham counties, but some 0.5-1
inch hail would be possible.
Tomorrow morning, behind the cold front, along and north of
U.S. 36, the cooler air may lead to some patchy to locally dense
fog formation between 10-15Z. The rest of the CWA has a 30%
chance at seeing some patchy fog too. Once the fog lifts,
temperatures look to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s. Around
21-3Z, another 500 mb shortwave looks to move through the area,
bringing some vorticity with it. Down around 850 mb, there will
be a pretty noticeable lack of moisture, and mid/upper-level
lapse rate only reach about 7C/km which will massively limit
PoPs to less than 15. However, there will be a convergence
boundary bisecting the CWA from northeast to southwest as a
surface low moves across the area. This could spark some
elevated storm with LCLs around 3km. If storms can form, wind
will be the biggest risk, especially a dry microburst. Overnight
tomorrow, temperatures look to cool into the mid 50s to low
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 142 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Tuesday, as the northwestern low breaks down the ridge over the
Rockies, the low looks to slow to a crawl over the northern
Rockies and potentially Fujiwara if the center of the low
splits. This pattern will dominate the majority of the workweek:
500 mb high shifts its axis over the central Great Plains and
the slow moving 500 mb low over the Northern Rockies, with the
850 mb level seeing a high pressure system over the mid and
southern Mississippi River Valley regions as weak lows eject off
the Northern Rockies. This will allow a southerly LLJ to funnel
mid and low-level moisture into the CWA as well as warmer
temperatures. Due to the heat, moisture, and weak cold fronts,
there will be a nearly daily 20-35% chance of showers and weak
storms across the area. If a stronger low and cold front can
eject off the the Northern Rockies, all the ingredients will be
in place for severe storms. The NBM is starting to come around
with PoPs for the workweek, but still does not accurately
reflect the precipitation potential well. This means the PoPs
shown in the local forecasts on our web page are lower than what
forecaster confidence in precipitation is. Overall, forecaster
confidence in: daily showers and weak storms forming is 20-30%;
at least one day (Tues-Fri) seeing showers and weak storms is
70-75%; confidence in severe weather occurring at least one day
Tuesday- Friday is 10-15%. Friday is slowing becoming the
favored day for the column to support organized convection, but
there is a lot of uncertainty.
Temperatures throughout the next week will warm into the mid to
upper 80s with a few places seeing low 90s. Low temperatures
will cool into the upper 50s to mid 60s as low level moisture
and cloud cover will keep us fairly warm.
Over next weekend, the northwestern low looks to move over the
Great Plains, which could lead to some slightly cooler
temperatures and higher PoPs.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 510 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
GLD: A few storms emanating from the Palmer Divide may track
east toward the CO-KS border this evening, potentially
affecting the Goodland terminal in the ~02-06Z time frame. Low
confidence with regard to storm development and coverage. Sub-
VFR conditions associated with fog are possible a few hours on
either side of sunrise Monday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail. South winds at 12-17 knots this evening will
decrease to 7-12 knots early Monday morning. Winds will veer to
the SW by sunrise and shift to the NW during the late morning.
Light (~7-12 knot) NW winds are likely to prevail through the
remainder of the TAF period.
MCK: Sub-VFR conditions associated with fog are possible a few
hours on either side of sunrise Monday morning (similar to the
past few days). Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. S to SSE
winds at 10-15 knots will prevail this evening and overnight.
Winds will veer to the SW during the late morning or early
afternoon.. further veering to the WSW or W during the mid-
afternoon. Light WSW or W winds are expected to prevail through
the remainder of the TAF period.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Vincent

NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion