New Holland, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

893
FXUS62 KCAE 241031
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
631 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions and hot temperatures expected again today, with
increasing humidity. Rain chances then increase for the end of
the week as a cold front approaches the area. Cooler
temperatures return then behind the cold front for the weekend
into early next week with continued chances for showers and
storms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Hot and relatively humid today.
Upper level shortwave visible on water vapor imagery over Kansas
continues to push southeastward which will lead to a more
amplified ridge developing over the Southeast. Deep layer
southwest flow will lead to increasing moisture and
strengthening warm advection. While PWATs will increase over
the course of the day, with HREF mean indicating a rise to
around 1.6 to 1.7 inches, rising heights will limit any forcing
across the area, limiting the chance for precipitation.
Temperatures continue to rise to well above average with highs
in the low to mid 90s today. A noticeable rise in humidity
expected today as well with the increasing southwest low level
winds. This will lead to heat indices maxing out in the mid to
upper 90s, quite atypical for this time of year. Low
temperatures remain well above average as well, with lows around
70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Pattern change expected to arrive for the end of the week.
- Increasing chances for showers and storms with some stronger
  storms possible Thursday.
Thursday and Thursday night: An upper level, positively tilted
trough is forecast to be over the central CONUS at the start of the
short term period. An associated cold front is expected to be draped
across the Ohio River Valley Thursday morning. Both of these
features are forecast to move toward the Southeast through the day,
allowing for southwesterly flow to bring increased moisture to the
forecast area. PWATs are forecast to rise to around 1.75" (around
150-175% of normal), with some guidance suggesting PWATs of 2" are
possible overnight. In addition to the increased moisture, CAPE
values are anticipated to be in the 1000-1500 J/kg range Thursday
afternoon and evening with 0-6 km bulk shear values nearing 25 kts
or so. As a result, scattered showers and storms are forecast to
develop in the afternoon and evening. With the aforementioned
parameter values, there is potential for a strong to marginally
severe storm with strong winds being the primary threat.
Temperatures are expected to be above normal for one more day, but
the amount of cloud cover we see will play a large role in how warm
we get.
Friday and Friday night: The upper trough and surface front are
forecast to inch their way toward the region. The upper trough is
expected to evolve to a closed low through the day, aiding in the
slow progression of this system. This will likely lead to more
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity than Thursday. CAPE
values are expected to be lower, in the 500-1000 J/kg range with
similar shear values. Therefore, the potential for stronger storms
is lower on Friday than Thursday. With more cloud cover likely and
the front being closer, temperatures are forecast to be cooler on
Friday, closer to average.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Cooler with continued chances for rainfall.
The surface front is forecast to slide eastward and through the
area Saturday. Meanwhile, the upper low is anticipated to remain
closed off and begin meandering somewhat. Guidance generally
suggests that it drifts westward; however, there is disagreement
between the model solutions just how far west this low may go.
As result, there is some uncertainty in the temperatures as well
as the precipitation chances, but cooler temps and at least a
slight chance of rain are forecast each day in the long term.
The evolution of this low is expected to have an impact on the
current tropical waves being watched by NHC. The more likely
system to approach the area is Invest 94L, if at all, which is
still several days out with plenty of uncertainty in any
details at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions shortly after sunrise when low clouds and fog
mix out.
Restrictions continue at AGS and OGB. Potential for ceiling and
visibility restrictions to continue for an hour or so but expect
rapid improvement after sunrise. VFR conditions expected for the
rest of the period with cumulus clouds developing around 5kft
with winds out of the southwest between 5 to 10 knots.
Increasing low level jet tonight ahead of a cold front will lead
to elevated winds through tonight, limiting the potential for
restrictions to develop at the terminals, although cannot
completely rule out brief restrictions at AGS/OGB but confidence
is low.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Periods of early morning
fog/stratus remain possible, especially at AGS and OGB through
the end of the week. Moisture increases mid-week leading to
increasing chances for rain and widespread restrictions on
Thursday and into the weekend.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion