621 FXUS63 KIND 152329 AFDINDArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 729 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and very warm to hot conditions are anticipated for much of the work week
- Drying fuels and low RH values each afternoon today through Friday may lead to elevated fire threat, but light winds should limit overall concerns
- Next chance of rain and nearer to normal temperatures arrives this weekend
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.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)... Issued at 128 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Quiet weather will continue throughout the short term period.
The few to scattered cumulus across the area this afternoon, especially south, will dissipate with loss of heating early this evening.
An upper ridge and surface high pressure will be the main influences through Tuesday, but some clouds from an upper level low southeast of the area will drift into central Indiana tonight and Tuesday. This will allow skies to become partly cloudy across most areas by Tuesday afternoon. The thickest clouds will be in the far east/southeast, closer to the system.
Blended guidance looks a bit warm tonight with mostly clear skies and light winds expected. Will trim some. With the high clouds on Tuesday, temperatures may be a bit cooler, especially east. Readings will still be well above normal though.
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.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)... Issued at 128 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
The modified Omega blocking pattern now looks to persist through the work week, which is not unexpected as models often break down these patterns too fast.
The ridging across central Indiana will provide very warm to hot temperatures along with dry conditions through at least Thursday. Blended guidance brings in PoPs as early as during the day Friday, but given recent trends feel that this likely overdone.
The warm and dry conditions will allow the ground to continue to dry, maintaining or increasing the elevated fire weather threat. Fortunately, winds will remain below critical fire weather thresholds.
As the blocking pattern breaks down, an upper level trough will gradually work into the area for the weekend into early next week. Surface low pressure will also move into the vicinity. These will bring rain chances to the area as well as cooler (but still above normal) temperatures.
Moisture availability and specific timing of better forcing remains uncertain, so will keep PoPs in the chance category.
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.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 728 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Impacts:
- None
Discussion:
VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Any remaining cumulus will diminish shortly after sunset this evening. High cirrus may be present throughout the night. Winds may go light and variable at HUF and BMG, but should maintain a light northeasterly component through the night at IND and LAF.
Cumulus once again develops after sunrise Tuesday with increasing high cloud cover. Winds increase a bit out of the northeast but should remain under 10kt.
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.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...Eckhoff
NWS IND Office Area Forecast Discussion