New Pine Creek, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

232
FXUS66 KMFR 221054
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
354 AM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion Updated.
&&
.AVIATION...22/12Z TAFs...Some areas of IFR/LIFR conditions are
present in valleys in Coos and Douglas counties overnight/early
this morning. These conditions are likely to affect Roseburg (KRBG)
and North Bend (KOTH) early this morning. Additionally, areas of
patchy IFR are present east of the Cascades, including near and
north of Klamath Falls and across Lake County, near and north of
Lakeview. Localized IFR is also present south of Grants Pass in the
Applegate Valley. Elsewhere, conditions are VFR this morning. Lower
conditions are expected to clear by late this morning, with VFR
prevailing through tonight under a dry easterly flow pattern.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 AM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025/
DISCUSSION...
Overview:
Overall, weather hazards/impacts continue to be minimal, but we do
have a threat of frost early this morning for areas east of the
Cascades with lingering cold air present behind a cold front.
Additionally, patchy valley fog and low clouds are expected this
morning. Otherwise, warm temperatures are expected in the
afternoons across inland areas, with unseasonably warm
temperatures anticipated, especially Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoon when some areas west of the Cascades will be close to
triple digits. This will coincide with generally dry conditions as
we experience poor overnight recoveries Monday night and Tuesday
night. Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more
details. Along the coast, periods of gusty northerly winds are
expected, especially today and again late in the week.
Further Details:
A high pressure ridge will build over the area while an upper low
to the northeast slides southward today from Canada and Montana,
along the Rockies, then into the Plains tonight. Additionally, a
cutoff low will remain well to the south off the southern
California coast today, moving slightly further northeast (but
still staying south of the area) later in the week. High pressure
will dominate the pattern southwest Oregon and northern
California and result in warming and drying conditions with above
normal high temperatures and dry conditions through much of the
week. In fact, we are expected to near record high temperatures
Tuesday and Wednesday with some valleys west of the Cascades
nearing triple digits. For example, the record for Medford is 100
on Tuesday and 99 on Wednesday, and we are forecasting 97 on these
days. These records are certainly within reach as temperatures
will be about 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.
Additionally, periods of gusty winds are expected for coastal and
mountain areas as a surface thermal trough builds over the region
today into Tuesday. Along the coast, the surface thermal trough
will strengthen today, then build northward tonight into Tuesday.
This will bring gusty north winds to the coast this afternoon and
evening, trending slightly lower Tuesday and Wednesday. Across
inland areas, breezy to gusty easterly winds are expected over the
mountains this morning. Then, breezy to gusty easterly winds
continue tonight/Tuesday morning combined with a drying trend and
relatively low nighttime humidities. Winds will trend lower
during the day Tuesday and into Wednesday but expect some
continued breezy conditions at times over the higher terrain.
High pressure remains in place through the end of the week. The
low to the south may drift northward into central California
Wednesday night and Thursday but the risk for thunderstorms looks
to stay south and southeast of the area. Temperatures trend
slightly less hot Thursday and Friday and afternoon breezes may
increase across inland areas. The warm and dry pattern continues
into the weekend.
Next week, we could see changes as deterministic models are
hinting at a trough moving through the region (beginning around
mid next week). That said, uncertainty does exist as ensemble
members are split on rainfall amounts, so confidence is not the
greatest with regards to rainfall, but chances are high we will be
more seasonable with regards to temperatures (70s/80s).
MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Monday, September 22, 2025...A
thermal trough will bring gusty northerly winds to waters today
through Wednesday. Steep seas will continue south of Cape Blanco
today. Then, winds increase and a mix of steep to very steep seas
will develop south of Cape Blanco with steep seas expanding north
of Cape Blanco. Winds trend slightly lower on Wednesday but gusty
north winds and steep seas will persist, with strongest winds and
steepest seas beyond 5 nm from shore. Then, winds may strengthen
across the waters Thursday and Friday.
FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, September 21, 2025...
Upper ridging builds today through Wednesday with rapid warming
and drying as a thermal trough takes hold along the NorCal and SW
Oregon coast. That said, expect some cool to chilly temperatures
with steep inversions (coldest this morning east of the Cascades
with temps possibly down near freezing). Expect a period of N-NW
through E-NE winds (not too strong) on the upper slopes/ridges
this morning (with good RH recovery), but NE-E winds will be a
bit stronger tonight/Tuesday morning with poor to moderate RH
recovery developing over the ridges. The dry air mass will be in
place over the area through at least midweek (the driest air
appears to be Tuesday night into Wednesday). We continue to carry
a headline at the top of the Fire Weather Planning Forecast for
locally gusty east winds and poor RH recoveries during this period
over the upper slopes/ridges. Expect high temps both Tue/Wed to
be in the mid- upper 90s west of the Cascades, and in the 80s over
the East Side (about 10-15F above normal). So, those out on the
landscape this week should plan for the expected hot
weather/unusual warmth. Take breaks during the peak of the heat in
the afternoons and stay hydrated. The good news is that the days
keep getting shorter and peak warm periods aren`t as long
(generally 2-6 pm).
The upper ridge should largely hold across southern Oregon and
NorCal through late this week as a closed upper low wobbles into the
Great Basin. This should keep the thunder risk to the SE of the area
with probabilities generally 10% or less.  The air mass should
modify some west of the Cascades during this stretch (especially
Thu/Fri), so, it won`t be quite as hot as earlier in the week, but
still above normal. Some enhanced afternoon breezes are expected
Thursday and Friday afternoon across inland areas.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Frost Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for ORZ028-029.
CA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for CAZ084-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this
     afternoon to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT
     Tuesday for PZZ356-376.
&&
$$

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion