111 FXUS66 KOTX 201739 AFDOTXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1039 AM PDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry through Saturday with breezy afternoon winds.
- Sunday cold front to deliver cooler temperatures, windy conditions, and chances for light showers.
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.SYNOPSIS... Dry, warm, and breezy conditions will prevail Saturday with elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the region. A cold front brings cooler temperatures, chances for showers, and gusty winds on Sunday. Chilly overnight lows expected Sunday night and Monday night. Temperatures warm again under a ridge of high pressure Tuesday and Wednesday.
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.DISCUSSION... Today: Saturday will start the transition from the ridge to the approaching cold front. The timing of the breakdown is expected to begin during the late afternoon. It will allow for the highs to reach into the 80s and low 90s. Overnight lows will chill into the 40s and 50s. Increasing upper level clouds are expected with the approaching system.
Sunday: Ensembles continue to swing a cold front through the Pacific and Inland Northwest. There are increasing precip chances with the front with the best chances over the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle. While these areas can expect a tenth or two, the trends have brought increasing showers chances to the much of the Basin and low lands. A range of 0.01-0.1" is possible with at least a 10% probability of a tenth. Instability parameters are pointing to a low thunderstorm threat for Northeast WA and North ID. Winds will be increasing across the Basin with frontal passage. Sustained in the teens with gusts into the 25 to 35 mph range are expected. Blowing dust will be something to look out for across portions of Central and Eastern WA but any rainfall could limit the concern. Highs for Sunday will be cooler reaching into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Overnight lows to get quite chilly. For some of the region`s colder spots including Republic, Deer Park, Colville, and Winthrop, lows will likely fall into the 30s for the first time this season. Frost in the higher locations of the northern mountains is possible.
Monday through Friday: A ridge is expected to begin to build in behind the front. It will bring another round of rather warm temperatures through much of next week. Highs will rise into the low 80s again by Tuesday and Wednesday, around 10 degrees above normal for late September. Overnight lows will climb back into the 40s and 50s. Ensembles are pointing to a late week system bringing cooler temperatures and low rain shower chances. /JDC
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.AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will continue for all TAF sites. Haze and smoke will continue near wildfires and may occasionally reduce visibilities to between 3-6 miles around Chelan, Omak, and Colville. Some of that smoke will be in the vicinity of EAT and MWH, but the MVFR conditions are expected to stay north. An approaching cold front with bring locally breezy southwest winds. The front reaches KEAT near 12z Sun, before spreading east across Eastern Washington 12-18z Sunday with an increasing chance for showers.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions for all TAF sites. Low confidence in MVFR conditions at EAT and MWH.
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Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
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.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 85 56 68 43 70 45 / 0 0 40 20 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 85 56 69 45 70 47 / 0 0 40 30 0 0 Pullman 83 54 67 41 69 43 / 0 10 40 20 0 0 Lewiston 89 62 75 51 75 50 / 0 10 30 20 0 0 Colville 85 44 67 35 70 35 / 0 0 80 30 0 0 Sandpoint 82 49 66 41 68 41 / 0 0 60 50 0 0 Kellogg 83 56 67 47 68 49 / 0 10 50 50 0 0 Moses Lake 87 55 73 41 73 43 / 0 0 60 0 0 0 Wenatchee 87 59 72 49 73 53 / 0 20 60 0 0 0 Omak 88 56 74 44 74 48 / 0 20 50 0 0 0
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.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None.
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NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion