Normandy, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

395
FXUS64 KOHX 211726
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1226 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
- Medium to high rain and thunderstorm chances are in the forecast
  through Thursday. Severe threat is low with strong to damaging
  winds and heavy downpours causing minor flooding the main
  threats.
- Temperatures will cool down to near normal values mid-week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a shortwave moving through
the Middle TN area, and this feature has helped isolated
thunderstorms develop across the west. A troughing pattern will
continue through the day, keeping about 40-60% chances for
thunderstorms continuing through the afternoon and early evening
hours. The atmosphere will continue to destabilize with CAPE values
building to around 1500 J/kg. Moisture is also on the rise with
the PWAT on this morning`s sounding rising to 1.48 inches, which
is above the average of 1.21 inches for the date. This moist,
unstable atmosphere will keep isolated to scattered thunderstorms
through this afternoon. Severe threat remains very low thanks to
poor mid-level lapse rate and very weak shear. But the high PWAT
values and DCAPE values rising to around 500-1000 J/kg will
support gusty winds and heavy downpours from any stronger storms.
Storm coverage will gradually diminish after sunset.
Another shortwave moves through the area on Monday, and moisture
advection will continue to push PWATs up to around 1.60 inches.
Plenty of instability will still be present by afternoon, but mid-
level lapse rates will still be poor. Wind shear is just slightly
better at around 20 knots which helps give a low chance for strong
to severe storms with damaging winds and heavy downpours causing
minor flooding still the main threat. The current SPC Day 2
Outlook places the majority of Middle TN in a marginal (level 1
out of 5) risk for Monday. Unlike today, chances don`t diminish
after sunset as models suggest another embedded shortwave near the
TN/KY border will keep medium to high rain chances in the
forecast north of I-40 through the overnight hours. But like the
afternoon, the severe threat is low.
Otherwise, high temperatures both today and Monday will remain in
the upper-80s to near 90 for most areas - still above normal for
late September.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
The upcoming week is still very unsettled thanks to a series of
disturbances. Tuesday looks to be similar to Monday with yet
another shortwave tracking through the area, above normal PWATs,
and sufficient instability. SPC`s Day 3 Outlook still highlights
most of Middle TN in that marginal risk with our primary threats
continuing to be strong to damaging winds and heavy downpours
resulting in minor flooding.
Wednesday and into Thursday, a deep closed low will develop to our
west. This closed low will increase lift and forcing for
thunderstorms, and PWATs will likely be highest during this time
with values of 1.75 to 2 inches. Rain chances are high Wednesday
and Thursday with an increased potential for heavy rain and
localized flooding.
Just in time for the official start of fall, high temperatures will
finally cool off as well with this system and the increased cloud
cover and rain chances. Highs near 90 to start the week will cool into
the low-80s Wednesday and Thursday. A front sweeps through the
area late Thursday and into Friday which will keep our high
temperatures in the 70s to low-80s through the weekend.
Post front, rain chances will fall as well, however, the pattern
remains unsettled as an upper-level low still looks to hang around
into next weekend. This will be enough to keep low rain chances into
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
A cluster of SHRA w/ embedded TS remains near CKV at this time,
but has remained northwest of BNA so far today. With outflow
advancing south and east, we may get by for at least the next few
hours without storms at BNA and MQY. Activity is now developing
near SRB and CSV and the TAFs depict convection for these
terminals through the afternoon. Southerly prevailing winds are
forecast through this afternoon at 5-8 kts outside of any effects
from thunderstorm outlfow. Additional SHRA/TSRA is expected
tomorrow afternoon (next TAF issuance). TAFs are VFR outside of
any issue presented by convection.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      69  89  69  87 /  20  60  70  60
Clarksville    67  89  67  86 /  30  70  80  70
Crossville     62  81  62  80 /  20  60  40  60
Columbia       67  89  67  87 /  20  60  50  50
Cookeville     65  84  65  82 /  30  60  50  60
Jamestown      64  82  64  80 /  30  70  50  60
Lawrenceburg   66  87  65  86 /  20  50  40  40
Murfreesboro   67  89  67  87 /  20  60  60  50
Waverly        66  88  65  84 /  20  60  70  60
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Sizemore

NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion