682 FXUS61 KALY 100123 AFDALYAREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 923 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracking off the eastern seaboard will bring some clouds and perhaps a few showers to areas mainly south and east of Albany late tonight and Wednesday. Otherwise, high pressure will bring dry weather and seasonably mild temperatures through at least Friday.
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.DISCUSSION... Key Message:
- Cloudier forecast Wednesday for areas mainly south/east of Albany along with a few showers possible (20-30%).
Discussion: .Update...As of 9:20 PM EDT...Quick update to temperatures to reflect the fact that temperatures radiatively cooling quicker than expected in some of the outlying areas, while many valley areas that have not yet fully decoupled remain a couple degrees warmer than the previous forecast. Given that fog/mist has already been observed at KGFL and many places are seeing temps approach the respective dew points, have also added more patchy fog into the grids tonight. While more clouds are expected across out southern handful of counties late tonight, clear skies and generally light to calm winds for most areas should promote several more hours of favorable radiational cooling conditions, with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s for many high terrain areas, with mid to upper 40s for most of the rest of the region. Other than these adjustments, previous forecast remains in good shape with more details below...
.Previous...Generally dry weather is expected through Friday with the exception of late tonight and Wednesday, as a wave of low pressure tracks off the eastern seaboard. Some low level moisture is expected to track north and west of this passing low, with clouds and spotty light showers/sprinkles possibly extending as far north and west as the mid Hudson Valley and Litchfield Hills around or shortly after daybreak. Some of these showers could even extend as far north and west as the Capital Region, Berkshires and Schoharie County during the mid to late morning hours before ultimately decreasing in coverage during the afternoon hours. So, a cloudier forecast for tomorrow for areas from Albany south and east, along with the possibility for a few showers (mainly during the morning hours).
Another cool night tonight, with lows in the 40s for many areas with some mid/upper 30s possible across portions of the southern Adirondacks. High temperatures Wednesday should be warmest across the Mohawk and upper Hudson Valleys where more sunshine is expected, with highs reaching 70-75. Cooler to the south and east high high temps mainly in the 60s to around 70.
Fog development may be a bit greater in coverage for areas south of I-90 Wednesday night due to slightly greater boundary layer moisture/less daytime mixing on Wednesday.
Generally dry for Thursday through Saturday morning, despite a cold front dropping southward Thursday. An approaching frontal system and upper level disturbance could bring a few showers late Saturday into Monday, although there remains uncertainty regarding the exact track/evolution of the upper level energy associated with this system and therefore expected coverage of showers. Otherwise, temperatures will be near or slightly below normal, with daytime highs mainly in the 60s and 70s, and overnight lows in the 40s to lower/mid 50s.
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.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00z Thursday...As of 7:25 PM EDT, flying conditions remain VFR at all terminals. Adjusted timing of fog/mist at GFL several hours earlier from previous TAF issuance based on latest observations and timing of fog development last night. Also expecting some fog development at PSF after 06z, although confidence is not as high as last night given increasing high clouds and the potential for a winds to begin to increase slightly late tonight. At ALB, once again watching the potential for a very brief period of some fog to drift overhead late tonight, but confidence is low. No fog expected at POU, although a couple light showers can`t be ruled out there tomorrow morning. Still expecting mainly VFR conditions within any showers. Otherwise, fog dissipates by 12z. Prevailing VFR conditions then expected through the day, with SCT mid and high clouds at ALB/GFL and BKN to OVC mid-level clouds at POU/PSF through the rest of the day. Winds will become light and variable overnight, then increase to 4-8 kt from the E/NE tomorrow.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.
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SYNOPSIS...Gant/KL DISCUSSION...KL/Main AVIATION...Main
NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion