North Cove, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

596
FXUS66 KPQR 261014
AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
314 AM PDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Conditions will be dry and mild through Sunday,
with the warmest temperatures expected on Saturday as high
pressure remains over the region. The first in a series of
Pacific frontal system will bring widespread rain to the area
Sunday night into Monday. Conditions remain cool and showery
through at least the middle of next week as additional frontal
systems move into the region. The strongest system currently is
expected Tuesday through Wednesday and will bring breezy south
winds, however uncertainty is high for exact wind speeds.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Now through Sunday...Minimal change in the overall
synoptic pattern through Sunday. Expect dry and mild conditions
through at least Sunday afternoon/evening as surface high
pressure and zonal flow aloft remains in place. Through
Sunday expect seasonable temperatures with highs in the 70s
over inland valleys and highs in the 60s along the coast.
Saturday, is shaping up to be the warmest day with inland highs
expected in the upper 70s to low 80s. /42
.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Friday...A pattern change is
on deck Sunday night/Monday as the first, in a series of
Pacific fronts move through the Pacific NW. The primary driver
will be a vertically stacked low somewhat anchored in the NE
Pacific Ocean near Graham and Moresby Islands. As this low
spins, it will send a series of frontal systems into the region
which will bring cooler and wetter weather. The first
significant slug of moisture looks to be on Sunday night through
Monday night and at this time could bring around 0.60"-1.00" to
the coast and 0.30"-0.60" inland. A second, more robust front
from Tuesday through Wednesday morning could bring 0.80"-1.50"
to the coast and 0.65"-1.20" to inland locations. Overall,
plenty of rain and cloud cover will result in much cooler
temperatures with highs in the 60s through the majority of next
week.
It should be noted that the stronger front for the middle of the
upcoming week could bring some elevated, southerly winds across
the forecast area. That said, confidence is very low regarding
exact wind speeds, as the outcome will be highly dependent on
the evolution of a mesoscale surface low and the proximity of
said low to the coast. Most ensemble guidance shows a weak low
with winds gusting up to 25 mph, which would result in little
to no impacts. However, some guidance does shows a much stronger
and more compact low moving towards the coast, resulting in
more significant wind gusts up to 50 mph. With leaves still on
trees, wind speeds of this magnitude would be enough to cause
some tree damage. That said, the probability for wind gusts
greater than 30 mph is 20-30%, greater than 40 mph is 5-15% and
greater than 50 mph is less than 5% for inland locations. As for
the coast, the probabilities are higher with the probability of
wind gusts greater than 30 mph is 20-40%, greater than 40 mph
is 10-20% and greater than 50 mph is less than 5%. /42
&&
.AVIATION...High pressure continues to slowly builds back over
the region, resulting in widespread VFR for most of the air-space.
However, there is around a 50-60% probability of MVFR conditions
at KAST through 16Z-18Z Friday. There is also around a 10-25%
probability that MVFR stratus could push up the lower Columbia
reaches the KPDX/KVUO between 12Z-18Z Friday. Also, could see
some backbuilding MVFR cigs impacting areas south of KPDX towards
KEUG from 14Z-18Z Friday. Any lowered flight conditions that
manifest, should improve back towards VFR around 18Z-20Z Friday
and persist through the remainder of the TAF period.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR conditions through the
TAF period. 10-25% probability that MVFR stratus reaches the
KPDX/KVUO between 12Z-18Z Friday. Any lowered flight conditions
that manifest, should improve back towards VFR around 18Z-20Z
Friday. /42
&&
.MARINE...High pressure will continue to weaken through the day as
the first in a series of frontal systems will bring northerly
winds through Saturday as a stronger series of fronts will result
in southerly winds starting Sunday. These southerly winds will
also bring about a 30% probability of gale force wind gusts
exceeding 34 kt before the cold front pushes inland Monday
morning.
Seas subside to around 4 to 6 ft this morning, but are expected
to build towards 7 to 9 ft through Friday night as a northwesterly
swell pushes through the waters. Seas continue to build towards
8 to 10 ft by Monday night/Tuesday as the aforementioned stronger
fronts bring elevated winds and a more robust swell train into the
waters which look to cause seas to build into the 12-14 ft range.
Winds and seas are expected to build further as the week
progresses, with both maxes looking to occur late Tuesday night
into early Thursday morning. Overall, active weather appears
likely to continue into at least the latter part of next week.
/42
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
www.weather.gov/portland
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NWS pqr Office Area Forecast Discussion