Nutrias, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

323
FXUS65 KABQ 081956
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
156 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 131 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
- Warmer and drier conditions will continue into Tuesday with
  isolated showers and storms favoring the southern high terrain
  and far eastern NM this evening then the western and central
  high terrain Tuesday.
- A more active weather pattern looks to return Wednesday with the
  highest coverage of showers and storms expected on Friday,
  especially for locations across western and central New Mexico.
  South to southwest winds will also become breezy areawide during
  this period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 131 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Water vapor imagery today shows drier air has made a deeper push
into the desert southwest and the 18Z KABQ PWAT was down to 0.56".
Sufficient low level moisture with dewpoints in the upper 30s to
upper 40s with warmer temps has allowed a stray shower or two to
form over the southern and southwest high terrain. This activity
will spread erratically eastward thru the evening. Model DCAPE
values are >1500 J/kg so strong outflow winds will be the main
concern. There is just enough shear and instability over far
eastern NM near the TX border to potentially support an isolated
strong cell thru sunset. Any mid level clouds over the area this
evening will dissipate with low temps trending a couple degrees
warmer than last night.
Tuesday is likely to feature greater coverage of showers and storms
with gusty outflow winds and brief rain. Surface to 700mb layer flow
will become more south/southwest over NM as a deep upper low moves
into northern California and the upper ridge consolidates over the
Permian Basin. Weak mid level moisture advection into central and
western NM with strong afternoon heating will help to develop high-
based showers and storms. A capping inversion is still expected to
keep a lid on more productive storms and DCAPE is closer to 2000
J/kg. Some of this activity may have robust outflow as it approaches
the ABQ metro area early Tuesday evening. Another strong storm or
two cannot be ruled out over far east-central NM where the better
moisture and instability remains in place.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 131 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Wednesday thru Friday is the next more active operational period
with increasing coverage of showers and storms, stronger winds, and
gradually cooling temperatures. The upper level pattern will amplify
over the Rockies while an upper level low approaches from the west
and the upper level high strengthens over TX. The 00Z NAEFS shows
strengthening southerly flow over central and western NM with IVT
(integrated vapor transport) rising to between 2 and 4 standard
deviations above climo. PWATs during this period are shown rising
to near 1" over the region (>95th percentile) as a 70-90kt upper
level speed max enters the Four Corners. Models have come into
better agreement with the H5 height pattern and moisture gradients
over the region so confidence is increasing in storm coverage and
placement. Some of these storms may be strong as well with bulk
shear >35KT, SBCAPE >500 J/kg, and steepening mid level lapse
rates. The 13Z NBM favors the northern and western high terrain
for the higher QPF, mainly the San Juan/Tusas Mts and nearby
lower elevations of northwest NM. Mean QPF averages 0.25 to 0.50"
with localized 90th percentile amounts over 1.25" in the high
terrain, especially Thursday and Friday. This would be excellent
given the extreme drought conditions over that area. Southerly
winds are also likely to increase areawide as the trough moves
into the area. The NBM75th percentile wind gusts average 35 to 45
mph in the vicinity of the central mt chain and RGV Thursday and
Friday. Max temps trend from several degrees above normal early
this week to near normal by late week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A shortwave upper level ridge cresting over NM thru tonight will
lead to more tranquil weather across the region. Isolated showers
and a couple stray storms are still possible over the southern
and southwest high terrain, including eastern NM. This activity
will move erratically eastward with strong outflow gusts near
40KT and brief rain possible. Any mid level cigs this evening will
clear in most areas after midnight. A couple patches of MVFR low
stratus may form around the Caprock and lower Pecos River Valley
before sunrise Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 131 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A shortwave upper level ridge will crest over NM today and Tuesday
as a strong trough approaches from the west coast. A few showers and
storms are still possible, mainly over the southern and southwestern
high terrain, including eastern NM. Some activity over western NM
may be drier with strong outflow winds and a couple dry lightning
strikes possible. South to southwest winds will trend stronger by
Wednesday as the upper level trough approaches from the west.
Deeper moisture will also advect into the area with greater
coverage of showers and storms expected over northern and western
NM. Rainfall amounts Wednesday thru Friday may average 0.25 to
0.50" in this area with localized values over 1.25". Storm
motions will be racing toward the north/northeast so residence
time for burn scar flooding is likely to be limited. The weekend
is expected to trend drier with less wind, especially northern,
central, and western NM. A few showers and storms may continue
over east-central and southeast NM for the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  55  88  59  86 /   0   0  10  30
Dulce...........................  43  84  46  82 /   0  10  20  40
Cuba............................  48  83  53  81 /   0  20  20  40
Gallup..........................  49  84  51  83 /   0   0   5  20
El Morro........................  51  81  52  79 /   0  20  10  40
Grants..........................  49  85  52  82 /   5  20  20  40
Quemado.........................  53  83  52  81 /   5  20   5  20
Magdalena.......................  57  83  59  83 /  10  20  10  20
Datil...........................  51  81  53  79 /  10  30  10  20
Reserve.........................  50  88  53  87 /  10  10   0  10
Glenwood........................  54  92  59  89 /   5   5   0  10
Chama...........................  45  77  46  75 /   0  10  20  50
Los Alamos......................  57  80  57  79 /   0  10  10  30
Pecos...........................  51  81  53  80 /   0  10  10  20
Cerro/Questa....................  49  80  52  78 /   0   5   5  20
Red River.......................  42  70  44  69 /   0  10   5  20
Angel Fire......................  35  75  38  73 /   0  10   5  20
Taos............................  48  83  50  81 /   0   5   5  20
Mora............................  47  78  48  77 /   0  10   5  30
Espanola........................  52  87  55  86 /   0  10  10  20
Santa Fe........................  57  82  58  81 /   0   5  10  10
Santa Fe Airport................  51  85  56  84 /   0   5  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  88  65  88 /   5  10  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  62  90  63  90 /   0  10  20  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  60  92  62  92 /   0  10  20  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  59  90  64  90 /   0  10  20  10
Belen...........................  57  92  59  92 /   0   5  20  10
Bernalillo......................  59  91  62  91 /   0  10  20  10
Bosque Farms....................  57  91  59  91 /   0   5  20  10
Corrales........................  57  92  63  92 /   0  10  20  10
Los Lunas.......................  57  91  61  91 /   0   5  20  10
Placitas........................  60  87  61  86 /   5  10  20  10
Rio Rancho......................  59  90  63  90 /   5  10  20  10
Socorro.........................  62  94  62  93 /   5  10  10  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  83  56  82 /   5  10  20  20
Tijeras.........................  56  87  59  86 /   5  10  20  20
Edgewood........................  52  87  54  86 /   0   5  20  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  49  86  51  86 /   0   5  10  10
Clines Corners..................  52  81  56  80 /   0   5  10  10
Mountainair.....................  54  85  56  84 /   0   5  20  20
Gran Quivira....................  55  84  56  84 /   0   5  10  10
Carrizozo.......................  60  87  62  86 /   0  10   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  55  80  56  79 /   0  20   5  10
Capulin.........................  51  81  51  80 /  10   5   5  10
Raton...........................  50  84  50  83 /  10   5   0  10
Springer........................  49  86  50  85 /   0   5   0   5
Las Vegas.......................  49  82  52  80 /   0  10   5  20
Clayton.........................  57  90  61  88 /   5   5   0   0
Roy.............................  54  86  56  85 /   0   5   5   5
Conchas.........................  59  92  62  91 /   0   5   5   0
Santa Rosa......................  55  88  59  87 /   0   5   5   5
Tucumcari.......................  59  90  61  89 /   0   0   5   0
Clovis..........................  60  93  62  92 /   5   5   5   0
Portales........................  61  94  62  93 /   0  10   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  61  93  62  90 /   0   5   5   5
Roswell.........................  64  95  64  93 /   0   5   0   0
Picacho.........................  58  90  58  89 /   0  20   0   5
Elk.............................  54  87  56  86 /   0  20   0   5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion