O Neill, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

149
FXUS63 KLBF 091726
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1226 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated thunderstorm chances will again be possible across
  portions of the Sandhills this afternoon. Widely scattered
  storms could organize somewhat tonight as they move eastward
  from the western high plains into southwest Nebraska.
- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon
  west of Highway 83.
- Warm conditions are expected to continue into the weekend. An
  increase in thunderstorm chances looks to arrive Friday night
  into the weekend/
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 416 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
An area of low ceilings/clouds continues to expand early this
morning across the Sandhills, southwest and central Nebraska.
Ceilings are gradually lowering within this area, and on the edges
some locally dense fog has developed. Ogallala recently has been at
1/4 of a mile on the western edge of the cloud shield. Ceilings will
continue to lower and patchy to areas of fog are expected to develop
before sunrise and then lifting by mid-morning. At this time, it
does not appear that fog will be widespread enough for a Dense Fog
Advisory, but will continue to monitor area observations.
Isolated thunderstorm chances will return to the area this afternoon
into tonight. Several of the CAMs have indicated that isolated storm
development will be possible across portions of the southern
Sandhills late this afternoon. This appears to be on the northwest
edge of the deeper low-level moisture pushing northwestward on
southeasterly low-level flow. There is decent shear, with 0-6km
speed of around 35 kts. If a storm can develop, profiles indicate it
could organize into a supercell structure. Negative factors for
development are rising heights as the ridge axis translates
eastward, weak low-level convergence and little forcing aloft. A
more likely scenario would be for highs plains convection to
organize some this evening as the deeper moisture moves westward
into the Panhandle. Flow aloft decreases through with the ridge axis
directly overhead, so overall severe threat seems low. Gusty outflow
winds would be the main threat if a cluster of storms can organize.
This would most likely occur across the southern Panhandle into
northeast CO and southwest NE.
The other concern today into tonight will be the potential for near-
surface smoke. This will be mostly confined to western portions of
Nebraska into the Panhandle where a more deeply mixed environment
will allow for smoke aloft to reach the surface.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 416 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
A pattern shift occurs Wednesday into the weekend. A Long wave
trough will deepen across the western CONUS. Winds aloft will become
southwesterly across our region ahead of this feature. Southerly low-
level flow will persist as leeward troughing deepens across the
western high plains. Modified Gulf air will continue to move
northward into the area. This will limit fire weather concerns
into the weekend. It appears that the trough axis will begin to
swing northeastward out of the western CONUS Friday into the
weekend. Precipitation chances will increase as this occurs
Friday night through Sunday. Flow aloft will increase as the
trough axis swings though the region. This could lead some
increase in the severe threat, and will have to be monitored.
Otherwise the warm pattern will continue with daily highs
in the 80s. Lows will be mild as well with the moisture/humidity
in the area.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout most of this
afternoon and evening across western and north central Nebraska.
Late afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
across the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska, which may bring gusty,
erratic winds and brief MVFR ceilings to area terminals. Given the
isolated to scattered nature of expected storms this afternoon,
omitted the mention from KLBF as confidence in timing and coverage
is low. Showers persist across the southwest overnight, and as
showers end, patchy fog development is expected again across
southwest and north central Nebraska. The more dense fog is expected
to remain east of KLBF and KVTN, but decided to bring at least MVFR
conditions into KLBF for the early morning hours.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion