Oak Springs, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

997
FXUS65 KFGZ 271727
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1027 AM MST Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue over the region through Sunday. Some stronger storms may
contain large hail, damaging winds, and very heavy rainfall, which
could lead to flash flooding. Conditions dry out by early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A closed upper low will remain nearly stationary over
the Imperial Sand Dunes through at least this evening. An unstable
and moist air mass has already established itself, although shear
values have decreased for today. Weak s/wvs moving around the low
have caused periodic flares of convection, otherwise, the boundary
layer has cooled too much to rely on surface heating alone.
Much of the night has been quiet so far, but IR imagery and radar
now indicate one such disturbance that has initiated some spotty
convection over southern Yavapai County early this morning. This
activity will increase through sunrise, with coverage then
increasing further as solar heating develops.
So, another active is expected and once again, isolated severe
storms cannot be ruled out. However, the potential for rotating
storms is fading.
By tonight, the low starts moving eastward in response to deep
upstream troughing. This may keep some nocturnal convection in the
picture as mid-level temperatures continue to cool. The low moves
through northern Arizona Sunday, with convection continuing.
Much drier air then establishes itself quickly in the wake of the
trough on Monday, with dry, breezy and slightly warmer conditions
for much of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...Saturday 27/18Z through Sunday 28/18Z...VFR to MVFR
conditions expected. Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA expected
throughout the day with isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA during the
overnight hours. Gusty and erratic winds near TSRA, otherwise
winds S-SE 5-10kts, gusts to 20kts daytime, light and variable or
terrain driven overnight.
OUTLOOK...Sunday 28/18Z through Tuesday 30/18Z...VFR conditions,
brief MVFR near SHRA/TSRA on Sunday, VFR conditions Monday and
Tuesday. Scattered SHRA/TSRA from 18Z Sun to 03Z Monday, no
precipitation expected after 03Z Monday. Winds SW 10-15kts during
the day, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms will continue. Stronger storms may be severe and
capable of producing flash flooding. Winds outside of thunderstorm
activity will be southerly at 5 to 15 mph each day.
Monday through Wednesday...Much drier with daytime temperatures
rising to around normal, overnight temperatures will become chilly
in spots. Daytime winds south through southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion