Oakhurst, California Weather Forecast Discussion

017
FXUS66 KHNX 170509
AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1009 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation Section.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Minor chances (less than 30 percent) to exceed 100 degrees
Tuesday and Wednesday for localized areas of the San Joaquin
Valley and Mojave Desert. Temperatures will cool Thursday into
the weekend.
2. Smoke will continue to linger as the Garnet Fire continues
to burn but with improving conditions; smoke will not be as
thick or widespread as in previous weeks.
3. Chance for showers an thunderstorms late this week as
tropical moisture tracks over the region from the south.
Thursday will bring the greatest chances for storms at 15 to 25
percent, however there is a chance for storms as early as
Wednesday afternoon that may result in dry lightning.
4. There is a Marginal Risk (5 to 15 percent) for Excessive
Rainfall leading to flash flooding on Thursday for Kern County,
the Sierra Nevada up to Yosemite, and the West Side Hills up
to the borders of Kings, Kern, and San Luis Obispo counties.
There is also a Marginal Risk on Friday in the Sierra Nevada
extending from Yosemite National Park to Sequoia National Park.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today will be the warmest day of the week as the ridge of high
pressure continues to dominate. However, the high temperatures
will remain close tomorrow but moisture from the Mario off the
Baja coast could trigger some dry thunderstorms.
On Thursday, the ridge begins to tilt its axis towards the
northeast as it moves east allowing the remnants of Mario to
move closer to California. Thunderstorm chances increasing to 15
to 25 percent for Kern County and 5 to 15 percent across much
of the Sierra Nevada and the west side of Kern County. Rain
chances increase on Friday as there is a 25 to 40 percent
probability of a quarter inch or more of rain in many Valley
locations. There is a 5 percent chance of thunderstorms in the
Valley and a 10 to 20 percent chance from eastern Kern County
stretching all the way up to Yosemite on Friday. This has led to
the Sierra Nevada being under a marginal risk of Excessive
Rainfall on Thursday and Friday along with the west side hills
of Kern County on Thursday.
Thunderstorm chances and overall rain chances decrease on
Saturday as a ridge develops over the Sonoran desert and
whatever is left of Mario moves northwest. THe valley has a 10
to 25 percent chance of a tenth of an inch of rain on Saturday
and there is a 5 to 10 percent chance of thunderstorms in the
Sierra Nevada for Saturday. The moisture should help reduce the
fire risk including helping with the Garnet Fire. Smoke should
not be too much of a concern with this approaching system as the
air gets mixed.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z Update:
VFR conditions will prevail across the Central California Interior
for the next 24 hours. Areas of Dense Smoke aloft along the Sierra
Nevada over eastern Fresno County and nearby counties from the
Garnet Fire may impact visibility.
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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.
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.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
public...JPK
aviation....EW
weather.gov/hanford

NWS HNX Office Area Forecast Discussion