Oilmont, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

131
FXUS65 KTFX 270544
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1144 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Aviation Section Updated.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Gusty winds are expected along the Rocky Mountain Front foothills
  early Saturday morning.
- Above average temperatures and dry weather continues through
  Sunday afternoon.
- Showers and thunderstorms return for the beginning of the week
  Sunday, with the best chances for precipitation over the
  Continental Divide and Southwest Montana.
&&
.UPDATE...
/Issued 637 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025/
Given upper level ridging in place, no major changes were needed
with the forecast tonight. The main adjustment was to use latest
near-term guidance to fine tune mention of smoke. -AM
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025/
- Meteorological Overview:
Behind the cold front passage earlier today, upper level ridging
continues to build in over the next few days. Winds aloft will
continue to transport smoke from the Pacific Northwest today and
tomorrow. This ridging pattern will keep above normal
temperatures through the weekend. Mountain wave activity over the
Northern Rocky Mountain Front will bring another round of gusty
winds along the foothills overnight tonight through early
Saturday morning, before decreasing. On Sunday, southwest flow
aloft moves in with a trough building along the Pacific Coast.
Slight advection of monsoonal moisture from the Southwest will
bring low end chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms along
the MT/ID border. Monday, a frontal passage will bring a better
coverage of precipitation for areas mainly along the Continental
Divide. Precipitation spreads farther east across the North-
Central Plains for Tuesday.
There is a little bit of uncertainty in how this trough continues
to evolve as it passes through the state mid to late week. Some
solutions keep it drier, while others keep precipitation around
through the work week. Ensembles do hint at cooler temperatures
settling in for the later part of next week.
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
For winds overnight tonight into Saturday morning, there`s a 30-70%
chance for 40 mph winds over the Rocky Montain Front Foothills,
with a 50% chance for 50 mph winds along the immediate downslope
of the Rockies.
For precipitation next week, the timing of the front will matter
for the chances for thunderstorms in the afternoon Monday and
Tuesday. Low instability will keep thunderstorms on the weaker
side, but if precipitation arrives later in the evening then
chances for thunderstorms diminishes. Ensembles keep the bulk of
the precipitation areas closer to the Continental
Divide/Southwest MT. Both days, there`s a 30-60% chance for 0.25"
of rain. However, the convective nature of this system will allow
for locally higher amounts with thunderstorms that get a heavier
shower. -Wilson
&&
.AVIATION...
27/06Z TAF Period.
Overall, VFR conditions are expected across the CWA through the
period. Some smoke will reduce distant visibility at times,
obscuring mountains/passes through the period. Brusda
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  81  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  46  76  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  45  80  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  39  78  43  81 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  29  70  32  69 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  39  76  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  45  80  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  44  79  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

NWS TFX Office Area Forecast Discussion