Olivia, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

583
FXUS64 KCRP 121802
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
102 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
- Increasing risk of minor coastal flooding this weekend and next
  week
- Lower shower and thunderstorm chances this weekend, increasing
  by middle of next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Moisture will decrease this weekend with PWATs dropping below 1.5"
across much of South Texas as a mid-level ridge shifts over the
area. However, the greatest moisture will focus over the Rio
Grande, where there will remain a low (~20%) chance of showers and
thunderstorms this weekend.
During next work week, a mid-level trough will swing eastward
across the Great Plains, leading to a few weak mid-level
disturbances over South Texas. These disturbances combined with
near normal moisture returning, will bring back daily low (20-40%)
rain chances Monday through Friday.
Persistent moderate onshore flow along with approaching seasonal
high tide will increase the risk of minor coastal flooding this
weekend and next week along the Middle Texas Coast. We will need
to closely monitor water levels during nighttime hours when high
tide is occurring.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Isolated to scattered showers and the occasional thunderstorm
continue early this afternoon, mainly south and west of I-37.
Direct heavy showers at terminals will briefly reduce visibility
with ceilings hovering between MVFR/VFR. Rain chances will shift
westward late this afternoon and evening, but confidence
decreases. PROB30s have been added to COT/LRD to reflect the low
potential. Southeasterly winds this afternoon will be sustained
between 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming light and
variable overnight into the early morning hours. Occasional MVFR
ceilings are expected between 12-16Z over the Rio Grande Plains,
impacting COT/LRD. Rain chances decrease tomorrow with VFR
conditions prevailing by 16Z across South Texas.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
East to southeasterly winds will generally range between 10 to 17
knots during the day and lighter overnight into the early morning
hours, through the middle of next week. Low chances for showers
and thunderstorms tonight through Sunday will increase to a low
to medium chance, 20-50 percent, during the work week. Seas will
generally range from 3 to 5 feet.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  92  76  92 /   0  10   0  10
Victoria          70  95  70  94 /   0   0   0  10
Laredo            75  98  74  99 /   0  30   0  10
Alice             72  96  72  95 /   0  10   0  10
Rockport          79  91  78  91 /   0   0  10  10
Cotulla           73  97  73  97 /   0   0   0  10
Kingsville        73  93  73  93 /   0  10   0  10
Navy Corpus       81  89  81  89 /  10  10  10  10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...EMF/94

NWS crp Office Area Forecast Discussion