Olpe, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

154
FXUS63 KTOP 231737
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1237 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorms build into the area this morning, some of which
  could be strong and produce a brief damaging wind gust, and
  rain rates in excess of an inch an hour.
- Chances for showers and storms continue through the day
  Tuesday (50-60% chance) and into Wednesday (20-40%) before
  dry conditions return Wednesday night.
- Dry and mild conditions expected Thursday into early next
  week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Two complexes of storms are converging on our area this morning.
The first one, currently moving across southern Kansas is
associated with surface trough and low-level jet. The second
one, currently over southeast Nebraska is associated with cold
pool surging south.
Models have been in good agreement with these features
intersecting northeast Kansas by around sunrise. The threat for
severe storms is very low and the window for any severe threat
is very narrow. From around 5 am to 7 am CAMs continue to depict
around 1,500 J/Kg of elevated CAPE and steep elevated lapse
rates. However, with significant boundary- layer CIN in place,
it would be a tall order for stronger wind gusts to reach the
surface and with a lack of shear (20 knots or less of effective
shear) hail is also not probable.
What is more likely is heavy rainfall. With that elevated
instability and PWATs around 1.75 inches, rain rates in excess
of an inch an hour are favored in stronger storms early this
morning. Instability and stronger lift will move quickly out of
the area by mid-morning and the higher rain rates with them.
Generally a half inch to as much as an inch and quarter are
favored across the area. Some isolated locations that experience
the strongest storms could see higher amounts.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible
through the rest of the day and into Wednesday as the main
upper-level low slowly pivots over Kansas before exiting the
area Wednesday night. Thereafter, an upper- level ridge builds
into the central Plains and we are favored to remain dry and
mild through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
High end IFR cigs at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK as majority of the SHRA
moving east of the sites this afternoon. Drier pockets of air
are trying to impede on the stratus despite the proximity of sfc
low and expansive MVFR/IFR stratus on the north side of the low.
Additional SHRA develop late tonight, bringing cigs back to
IFR/LIFR potentially with the heaviest rain bands Wed. morning.
Inserted a PROB30 group aft 09Z for this possibility.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Prieto

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion