Omemee, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

638
FXUS63 KBIS 011502
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1002 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High temperatures around 10 to 20 degrees above average today
  and Thursday.
- Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are possible this
  weekend, especially in south central and eastern North Dakota.
- Cooler temperatures return Saturday with temperatures dipping
  below average to start the upcoming week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Thunderstorms and showers continue across the northwest and
some isolated showers down in the James River Valley. Showers
and thunderstorms chances will progress across the central half
of the state this afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to warm
into the mid 70s to lower 80s this afternoon. Updated PoPs to
match current conditions, no other updates are needed at this
time.
UPDATE
Issued at 644 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A few thunderstorms remain in the northern James River Valley,
though should exit the forecast area within the next hour or so.
Showers in northeastern Montana continue to gradually approach
northwestern ND. Currently, there are a few rumbles of thunder
with this line, though it remains uncertain how much lightning
will persist as it enters the state. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 442 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A ridge is currently centered over the Great Lakes Region
resulting in southwesterly flow aloft over the state. Shortwave
energy riding the western extent of the ridge, and an
associated slow moving surface cold frontal boundary currently
over eastern Montana, will pass through the state today. This
will likely bring isolated to scattered showers to western ND
this morning and possibly linger into the early afternoon.
Forecast models keep instability minimal in the west as the
front passes through. However, should a shower be able to tap
into any lingering elevated instability, a few rumbles of
thunder aren`t out of the question. Further east, a cluster of
showers and thunderstorms has also developed over the James
River Valley early this morning and should exit over the next
couple hours.
The aforementioned frontal boundary will keep high temperatures
a bit cooler (upper 70s), albeit still well above average, in
western ND today. For areas along and east of Highway 83, highs
will mostly be around 80 to a few degrees above 80. In
addition, breezy southerly winds ahead of the frontal boundary
in central and eastern parts of the state will gradually
diminish from west to east as the front passes through.
Thursday is expected to remain dry with highs mostly in the
upper 70s to low 80s, while Thursday night should remain mostly
dry with lows in the 50s to around 60.
For Friday, a trough will begin to dig into the western CONUS,
while another thermal ridge builds into the Northern Plains.
Along with a southwest to northeast orientated quasi-stationary
surface frontal boundary over the state, there may be a large
disparity between highs. Current NBM progs highs ranging from
the mid 70s northwest to around 90 far southeast on Friday.
However, just how far north or south this front sets up may
impactfully alter where these warmer and cooler temperatures set
up. The current forecast for Friday is mostly dry with a low
chance for precipitation in the north and especially northeast.
While severe weather is generally not anticipated at this time,
models do suggest some instability and shear so a strong storm
isn`t out of the question.
Friday night through this weekend and into early next week is
when a major shift in the pattern is anticipated. Split flow
aloft is favored Friday night. However, models are also coming
into agreement that the northern stream will merge with the
southern stream this weekend resulting in a more organized
longwave trough over the western CONUS. As it lifts up through
the Northern Plains, associated surface low pressure (currently
analyzed over the far southwest CONUS), will redevelop over the
Central Plains and likely lift northeast through South Dakota,
Minnesota, and into Ontario. The northeastward progression of
which seems forced by blocking high over the Pacific protruding
back into the eastern CONUS.
While no deterministic models currently wind up the low like a
traditional warm season (rain only) colorado low; thanks to
aforementioned blocking high pressure out east, it`s also not a
completely progressive open wave as some models were suggesting
over the past few days. In other words, the potential for
periods of moderate to heavy rainfall is increasing with NBM
PoPs now as high as 65 percent in parts of southern and eastern
ND Saturday night. In addition, NBM QPF continues to steadily
increase with probabilities of a half inch or more of total
rainfall nearly matching said PoPs. Rain chances are
significantly lower in the northwest.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 644 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A shower remains within the vicinity of KJMS with thunderstorms
to the north. While not impossible, based on the latest trends
and drier air remaining in place, it`s looking less likely that
any precipitation will fall at the terminal early this morning.
Speaking of KJMS, a couple hours of LLWS may be impacting the
terminal until mid-morning. Otherwise, a line of showers, along
with a few rumbles of thunder, is present in northeastern
Montana and is gradually working into western ND. This may
impact KXWA for a few hours this morning. Models are in
disagreement just how far east this line will track before
dissipating, with a low chance it could reach KDIK or KMOT as
well. Once all showers and thunderstorms dissipate today, dry
conditions are on tap through the remainder of the period while
VFR ceilings and visibility prevail.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Johnson/Telken
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion