Oregon, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

495
FXUS63 KMKX 101432
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
932 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered showers should move east into south
  central Wisconsin this morning, and may linger into the
  afternoon further to the east before ending. A rumble of
  thunder is possible.
- The warming trend is expected to continue, with high
  temperatures warming to above normal values by Thursday and
  Friday, lingering into early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued 930 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Forecast is largely on track this morning. Ongoing along the
leading edge of an approaching upper wave, scattered showers are
lingering over the western half of the area. Isolated lightning
activity has waned in this activity, which is likely due to
weakening WAA within the 1000-850 mb layer. Activity will
attempt to work east toward Lake Michigan through late morning,
but will struggle to maintain as it encounters a drier air mass.
Have thus tapered mentionable precip probabilities out of the
forecast after 1 PM, but will continue to watch trends.
Quigley
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 345 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Today through Tonight:
Isolated to scattered showers should continue to slowly shift
east into south central Wisconsin into this morning, as the main
area of differential CVA shifts through. There is decent
moisture at 700 mb and above, with the low levels rather dry per
area forecast soundings. Thus, some of the showers may evaporate
before hitting the ground, which leads to more confidence in the
isolated to scattered wording in the forecast. A rumble of
thunder may occur as well, with very weak instability present.
This area may shift further east into parts of southeast and
east central Wisconsin this afternoon before ending, if the
moisture and upward vertical motion can remain viable enough to
overcome the dry low levels. Could see a rumble of thunder here
too, if instability develops per forecast soundings.
Otherwise, middle to high clouds should linger into today, with
some diurnal cumulus clouds also developing this afternoon.
Light south winds are expected today, becoming southeast near
Lake Michigan this afternoon with a lake breeze. Highs should
reach the middle 70s, with upper 70s in southeast Wisconsin
before the lake breeze pushes in.
Winds will weaken tonight with some partial clearing, with high
pressure to the northeast of the region. There is some potential
for fog to develop overnight into early Thursday morning given
this setup. However, confidence is low, as low temperatures in
the middle 50s over most areas may not get lower than expected
dew points this afternoon (lower to middle 50s). Thus, may just
see some fog in the low lying areas. For now, will leave out
mention in the forecast.
Wood
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 345 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Thursday through Tuesday:
Upper level riding is expected to build in from the southwest
late week, with warming conditions as southerly low level flow
also develops. Dry weather is expected Thursday through the day
Friday, under departing surface high pressure.
Models are showing a chance for showers and storms later Friday
into early Saturday, as warm air advection increases and a weak
wave rolls through the top of the ridge. There remains a good
signal that high temps will hit 80 degrees most places for the
first time this month by Friday.
The latest round of models have come into better agreement for
the weekend into early next week, compared to 24 hours ago.
There is fairly good consensus that upper level ridging will
remain in place through this period, with mainly dry weather and
above normal temperatures expected.
DDV
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 930 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Isolated to scattered showers should continue to slowly shift
east into south central Wisconsin through late morning. The low
levels are rather dry, so some of the showers may evaporate
before hitting the ground. A rumble of thunder may occur toward
Madison. These showers will attempt to shift east this
afternoon, but will struggle to maintain themselves as they
encounter drier air.
Otherwise, middle to high clouds should linger into today.
Scattered to perhaps broken diurnal cumulus around 4000 feet
AGL or so should develop this afternoon. Light south winds are
expected today, becoming southeast near Lake Michigan this
afternoon with a lake breeze.
Winds will weaken tonight with some partial clearing, with high
pressure to the northeast of the region. There is some
potential for fog to develop overnight into early Thursday
morning. Confidence is low, so may just see some fog in the low
lying areas.
Quigley/Wood
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 345 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Light winds are expected today through Friday, under the
influence of high pressure around 30.4 inches that will slowly
move east southeast from northern Ontario to southern Quebec.
High pressure around 30.2 inches will then linger over New
England this weekend into early next week, with low pressure
around 29.9 inches shifting northward through the Northern
Plains. South winds will pick up on Saturday, then become
generally easterly Sunday into early next week.
Wood
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee
Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee

NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion