Oriska, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

491
FXUS63 KFGF 172337
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
637 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A wet period is setting up from tonight through Friday night,
  with the focus for the highest rainfall potential across
  southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota. Outdoor
  activities and ongoing harvest will be impacted to varying
  degrees.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Dry air at the surface is keeping the handful of radar returns
in our far south from reaching the ground. However, the
atmospheric column will continue to saturate over the next
several hours, with rain expected to begin in the far south
around midnight. From there, it will slowly inch northward
overnight, reaching about I94 by sunrise. Outside of short term
adjustments to match this idea in the grids, the rest of the
forecast remains on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...Synopsis...
A pair of upper lows to our west will wobble east and rotate
around each other as we head into the later part of the work
weak. The southernmost upper circulation will lift
northeastwards towards the ND/SD border tomorrow, remaining over
the Dakotas through Friday before moving off into the upper
midwest over the weekend. Another upper low starts to move into
the Dakotas for Monday, and then down into the central MS
Valley by the middle of next week.
...Rain tonight into Friday night...
ECMWF EFI has a fairly robust wet signal for the Dakotas from
tonight through 00Z Saturday, then again for Monday. Instability
looks fairly weak, although some ensemble members bring some
CAPE into our southern counties for tomorrow, with probability
of over 1000 J/kg around 25 percent. With not a lot of CAPE and
deep layer shear around 30 kts, the main issue continues to be
heavy rainfall. Probabilities for over an inch of rain through
Friday night are still highest in southeastern ND, ranging from
50 to 80 percent. Chances for heavy rainfall trail off
significantly further northeast, with less than half an inch
expected near Lake of the Woods. The rainfall is expected over
several days and should not all come at once, with the 75th
percentile for 6 hourly QPF not getting above half an inch. At
this point, think rain should soak in pretty well and will not
message much more than we already have.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Conditions will go downhill at all TAF sites tonight into
Thursday morning. VFR will give way to MVFR by Thursday
morning. Pockets of IFR are also expected, particularly at KFAR
and KDVL, likely prevailing for a period on Thursday. IFR may
become more widespread then current TAFs show, and may
necessitate PROB30s or TEMPOs at other sites as we get closer.
Rain will accompany lowering ceilings, hampering visibility
into the MVFR range as well. MVFR will persist through the end
of the TAF period, likely continuing into Thursday night, or
even lowering again into IFR.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Rafferty
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Rafferty

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion