Orlo Vista, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

066
FXUS62 KMLB 271800
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast today as a
  cold front approaches the Florida peninsula.
- Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 is anticipated to develop and
  strengthen into a tropical system as it moves northward across
  the southwestern Atlantic and parallel to the Florida coast late
  this weekend into early next week.
- Primary impacts to east central Florida from PTC 9 are
  anticipated to be dangerous beach and boating conditions along
  with a low chance for tropical storm force winds. Outer rain
  bands from the western side of PTC 9 are also forecast to move
  onshore, with localized flooding possible on Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Today-Tonight...A mid-level trough sweeps across the southeastern
U.S. today, with its associated front drifting eastward towards
the Florida peninsula and stalling overnight. Light southwesterly
flow is forecast to persist locally out ahead of the front, with
temperatures reaching the upper 80s to low 90s once again this
afternoon. This heating will prompt the development of the east
coast sea breeze, with winds becoming more easterly this
afternoon. Progression inland of the sea breeze will be slow as
the predominant flow in the low and mid levels remains out of the
west-southwest. The sea breeze will take advantage of the moist
air mass out ahead of the front across the area, with PWATs of 2
inches and greater areawide supporting the development of showers
and storms through this afternoon.
Similar to yesterday, current guidance supports MUCAPE exceeding
1500 J/kg across most of east central Florida along with steep
low-level lapse rates, which would support storm development.
While moisture is plentiful, model soundings do indicate a pocket
of drier air around 700 mb that has helped keep DCAPE values above
500 J/kg. Overall, storm threats continue to be focused on
frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and heavy
downpours that could lead to rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches. The
greatest coverage of activity is anticipated to occur sometime
after 3 PM, particularly near the I-4 corridor as the sea breezes
collide. Boundary interactions between the sea breezes as well as
additional outflow boundaries from storms could lead to brief
funnel cloud development, though confidence in this remains low.
Shower and storm activity will be slow to diminish, moving towards
the east coast and offshore through the evening and overnight
hours. Coastal shower activity through the overnight hours cannot
be ruled out, especially as winds turn more northeasterly.
Overnight temperatures fall into the low to mid 70s across east
central Florida.
Sunday-Monday...While the stalled boundary is forecast to remain
in place across the Florida peninsula late this weekend into early
next week, focus shifts to the tropics as Potential Tropical
Cyclone 9 develops and strengthens across the southwestern
Atlantic. PTC 9 is forecast to make an uncomfortably close pass
near Florida late Sunday through Monday, with ensemble guidance
continuing to favor a northward motion as it parallels the coast.
Locally, there are a number of potential impacts from PTC 9 that
warrant monitoring over the next couple of days. The impacts with
the highest confidence are deteriorating beach and boating
conditions. Increasing seas and swells from PTC 9 will lead to
dangerous boating conditions, with seas reaching up to 15 feet
across the offshore waters. At the coast, breaking waves of 6 to 8
feet coupled with long period swells will make for dangerous
beach conditions starting as early as Sunday afternoon. A high
risk of rip currents is anticipated, and a High Surf Advisory will
likely be needed starting on Sunday. Minor to moderate beach
erosion as a result of these higher breaking waves will also be
possible along the east central Florida coast.
In addition to the coastal and marine impacts, there are also
wind and rain concerns relative to PTC 9. Breezy to windy
conditions are forecast areawide as winds strengthen out of the
northeast on Sunday, becoming northerly on Monday as PTC 9 moves
parallel to the peninsula. There is a low chance (2 out of 10) for
tropical storm force winds along the east central Florida coast,
with even lower chances farther inland. As far as rainfall goes,
outer bands on the western edge of PTC 9 are forecast to move
onshore Sunday through early Monday, with the potential for
multiple rounds of rainfall across the area. The highest rain
chances are focused along the coast (70%), with slightly lower
rain chances across the interior (50-60%). The Weather Prediction
Center has highlighted the east central Florida coast in a
Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall on Sunday and Sunday night,
with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches and locally higher amounts
exceeding 4 inches possible. Localized flooding will be a concern,
particularly in low-lying areas and areas that are already
saturated from previous days of rainfall. Storms cannot be ruled
out within these rain bands, with lightning strikes and higher
gusts possible. By Monday afternoon, PTC 9 is forecast to move
farther away from the Florida peninsula, with drier air slowly
filtering in across the area. Rain and storm chances decrease,
though lingering activity cannot be fully ruled out.
It is important to note that there is still a level of
uncertainty relative to rain and wind impacts, and any shifts in
the track of PTC 9 will influence whether these threats increase
or decrease. Residents and visitors of east central Florida are
strongly encouraged to remain up to date on the latest information
regarding PTC 9 and ensure any plans or supplies are in place
should they be needed. Ensure you are receiving forecasts from
reliable sources, as that will be key in having the best and most
up-to-date information on PTC 9.
Tuesday-Friday...As PTC 9 moves farther away from Florida, the
stalled boundary is anticipated to wash out across the peninsula,
with a broad mid-level trough remaining situated across the
southeastern U.S. through the end of the forecast period. Drier
air lingers in the wake of PTC 9, resulting in lower rain chances
through next week (20-50%). Storm development will continue to be
possible through the extended forecast period, with lightning
strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours all possible. A cooling
trend is also forecast through the period, with highs on Tuesday
in the upper 80s to low 90s falling into the low to mid 80s later
in the week. Overnight lows remain in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Despite the departure of PTC 9, there will likely still be
lingering coastal and marine impacts locally. Persistent
northeasterly to easterly winds will make it hard for seas to
subside, with additional long period swells traveling towards the
area from Major Hurricane Humberto through next week. Seas remain
elevated around 11 feet across the offshore waters, with breaking
waves along the coast of 4 to 7 feet still anticipated. A high
risk of rip currents through the extended period will be likely,
especially if the forecasted wave heights continue to stay
consistent. Residents and visitors will need to continue to
monitor coastal and marine impacts even after PTC 9 departs.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
A cold front will continue its slow approach towards the Florida
peninsula today, resulting in high chances of showers and storms.
This activity is anticipated to move offshore through the
overnight hours, with winds remaining below 15 knots and seas
generally 2 to 4 feet through tonight.
Boating conditions then deteriorate starting on Sunday as PTC 9
tracks northward, eventually moving parallel to the east central
Florida coast on Monday. Northeast winds on Sunday increase to 15
to 25 knots, becoming northerly on Monday at 20 to 30 knots.
Tropical storm force winds will be possible across the offshore
waters on Monday as PTC 9 makes it closest approach to the area.
Seas quickly climb late this weekend into early next week,
reaching 6 to 11 feet across the nearshore waters and 9 to 15 feet
across the offshore waters. Dangerous boating conditions will
exist not only as a result of the wave heights but also from
increasing swell periods. Outer rain bands from the western side
of PTC 9 are also anticipated to move across the local Atlantic
waters, keeping coverage of showers and storms high through late
weekend and into early next week.
Poor to dangerous boating conditions are anticipated to persist
across the local waters through much of next week. Seas will be
slow to subside behind PTC 9 for two reasons; continued northeast
to east winds as well as long period swells approaching the local
waters from distant Major Hurricane Humberto. Seas up to 11 feet
are forecast to persist, along with wind speeds of 15 to 20 knots.
Slightly lower coverage of showers and storms is anticipated,
though activity is still likely to remain scattered across the
local waters.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Light rain is observed near, north, and west of I-4 with VCSH
included at the interior east central Florida terminals early this
afternoon. Have kept TSRA TEMPOs at these terminals late this
afternoon, but there is decreasing confidence in lightning.
Further south, scattered showers and lightning storms have
developed along the Treasure Coast, and TSRA TEMPOs are in place
at VRB/FPR through 19Z. Onshore moving showers will be possible
along the coast through the overnight period and will maintain
VCSH. Models signal heavier bands of showers could set up on the
Treasure Coast into early Sunday morning and will need to monitor
if TEMPOs may be needed with future TAF packages. Southwest winds
remain less than 10 kts today, shifting onshore with the east
coast sea breeze. Winds shift out of the northeast tomorrow
increasing and becoming gusty in the afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  85  74  84 /  50  70  60  60
MCO  74  89  74  87 /  40  70  30  50
MLB  76  86  76  86 /  50  70  50  50
VRB  75  86  75  87 /  50  70  50  50
LEE  73  89  74  87 /  30  50  20  40
SFB  74  87  74  86 /  40  70  40  50
ORL  75  88  74  86 /  40  70  30  50
FPR  75  86  74  87 /  50  70  50  50
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Watch for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747.
AM...Tropical Storm Watch for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Law

NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion