Osawatomie, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

843
FXUS63 KEAX 140425
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1125 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
...06z Aviation Update...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures continue into the first half of next
  week. Highs remain in the low to mid 90s into Tuesday.
- A few chances for widely scattered showers and storms (20-30%)
  Sunday afternoon/evening as well as Monday and Tuesday
  afternoon/evening. No severe weather expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
High amplitude shortwave ridging continues to remain in place over
the region today. This coupled with modest WAA is continuing to
allow temperatures to push well above normal with highs in the low
to mid 90s and lows tonight in the upper 60s to as warm as the mid
70s in the urban core. Tomorrow, a stationary front will extend from
a surface low over the Black Hills to near the MO/IL border. Widely
scattered afternoon/evening storms will be possible in the vicinity
of this front which may bring a few storms into the eastern CWA. In
addition, tomorrow, the upper level ridge will shift just east of
the area as a upper level trough digs into the west central Plains.
Lead shortwaves will move into eastern Kansas bringing the potential
for widely scattered afternoon/evening storms to the western CWA.
Monday and Tuesday the upper level ridge will continue to reside
just east of the area, with upper troughing over the western Plains.
This will leave the local area under southwest flow aloft between
the two features keeping temperatures well above normal with highs
remaining in the low to mid 90s. weak shortwaves in the southwest
flow may provide enough lift to produce some widely scattered
diurnally driven storms both Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday night into
Wednesday the upper level trough will move from the western High
Plains into the Upper Midwest. This will force a trailing cold front
through the CWA Wednesday. This will bring the next good chance for
widespread showers and thunderstorms (50-60%). The pattern looks to
remain active through the latter part of the work week as additional
shortwaves will move across the northern Plains continuing shower
and thunderstorm chances locally. In the wake of the cold front
Wednesday, temperatures will return to near normal with highs in the
upper 70s to mid 80s for the remainder of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
TAFs this issuance will continue to carry prevailing VFR
conditions across the sites. That said, similar caveats to the
00z discussion remain. Mid-upper wave lifting west of the area
remains anticipated to keep bulk of shower/storm activity into
Kansas. A near stationary boundary towards eastern Missouri
remains expected to initiate convection, with some potential
westward building signaled by CAMs, but fall short of reaching
western Missouri. Lastly, a few air-mass thunderstorms may be
possible through central Missouri, but is lowest confidence of
the mentioned precipitation triggers. All this to say,
confidence in affecting the TAF sites remains too low to
introduce PROB30s or otherwise. Southerly winds pick up by the
afternoon, with sustained around 10kts gusting into upper teens.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Curtis

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion