Otis Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

533
FXUS65 KBOU 070543
AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1143 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered rain showers in the foothills and I-25 Corridor this
  evening. A few snow showers possible over the mountains.
- Cool Tuesday with some partial clearing.
- Above normal temperatures return for Wednesday and continue
  through Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION /Through Monday/...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Low level flow will continue to keep the low clouds and moisture
banked up against the foothills and east slopes of the Front Range
mountains through tonight. A jet streak will bring scattered
showers to the area through this evening with a little snow over
the higher mountains. Precipitation comes to an end this evening,
but enough low level moisture will remain in place for low clouds
to persist. This will help keep temperatures from fall much
overnight with lower to mid 40s expected for overnight lows.
Ridging begins to develop Tuesday over the Southern Rockies, but
doesn`t affect Colorado yet. Surface high pressure off to the east
will result in a southeasterly low level flow. This is expected
to produce a Denver cyclone, which will help keep the cooler and
more moist air east of the Continental Divide. Expect mostly
cloudy skies to begin the day, with some clearing during the
afternoon hours. High temperatures will be below normal again with
readings in the upper 50s to lower 60 across northeast Colorado.
If/where clouds persist through the day, highs will likely be in
the 50s. Low level flow turns more southwesterly Tuesday evening
and Tuesday night. This will scour out the cooler and more moist
airmass.
Upper level over the Southern Rockies spreads northward Wednesday
bringing warmer and drier conditions. This ridging stays over
Colorado through Thursday. Temperatures climb above normal with
highs expected to reach the 70s Wednesday and Thursday.
The ridging slide east of Colorado Friday as an upper level low
moves onto the west coast. The southwest flow aloft will continue
to bring mild temperatures with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s
across northeast Colorado. Southwest flow aloft increases into
Saturday as the upper level low moves inland. Moisture increases
as well with widespread rain showers and high mountain snow (above
12,000 MSL) moves into the western half of Colorado Saturday and
Saturday night. The rain and snow showers are expected for the
north central mountains as well, but will be lighter and more
scattered. The main low travels eastward across Montana and
northern Wyoming, staying well north of Colorado. This will result
in westerly flow aloft and downslope flow east of the Continental
Divide, greatly limiting chances for precipitation. Temperatures
cool off for Sunday as a cold front moves through the area. Will
have low PoPs in the forecast for Sunday. Flow aloft backs to the
southwest flow Monday as the next storm system drops south across
the western States. There`s some normal uncertainties in the
pattern with next Monday being a week away, but would expect
temperatures to be near normal with dry conditions under this
pattern.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 1136 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to continue overnight through
around midday Tuesday, with gradually improving conditions by the
afternoon. Difficult stratus forecast initially, with guidance
not handling the first few hours particularly well compared to
satellite observations. Will essentially maintain what ceilings
are currently out there through at least 10z.
Second challenge comes near 12z Tuesday as the HRRR has rapidly
trended towards developing widespread dense fog on the cool/north
side of a weak cyclone. There`s little support from other models,
but given the potential impacts at least added some VCFG and will
continue to watch.
Finally, the gradual rise in ceilings/scattering out of the
stratus is relatively uncertain... with some guidance returning
the terminals back to VFR as early as ~18z, while others keep at
least MVFR cigs through the day. Current solution isn`t too
different than previous TAF. It`s also worth noting that FG will
again be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Meier
AVIATION...Hiris

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion