Ozark, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

228
FXUS62 KTAE 260636
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
236 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 236 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Overnight satellite and surface analysis shows a broad, neutrally
tilted upper trough over the Southern Plains with a shortwave
rotating across AR/MS. Attendant to these features aloft is a
cold front extending from the Appalachians down to East TX/LA
coast and pre-frontal surface trough trailing through the Central
Gulf. The latter is forcing clusters of maritime showers and
isolated thunderstorms approaching the FL Panhandle beaches.
Expect this activity to expand in coverage through the early
morning hrs while moving east along/south of the I-10 corridor.
Locally heavy rain and gusty winds are going to be the main
concerns, particularly for those commuting to work or school.
Elsewhere, patchy fog is possible during the pre-dawn hrs and
around sunrise mainly east to NE of the Apalachicola Nat`l Forest.
Once the initial convective batch moves past North FL towards South-
Central GA, another round of showers/thunderstorms attempts to
develop over parts of SE AL/SW GA forced by the cold front as
daytime instability kicks in this afternoon. Inland activity should
wane after sunset while eastward-moving convection persists along
the NE Gulf Coast before shifting to the Apalachee Bay/SE Big Bend
side late tonight into early Saturday morning. Forecast rain chances
reflect these trends.
The combination of increased precipitation with thick cloud cover
yields high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Low temperatures
range from the mid to upper 60s (isolated low 70s). Another round of
patchy fog appears likely at the end of the near-term period as
winds go light/calm amidst a moist boundary layer atop saturated
grounds from rain. Frontal passage holds off until late Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 236 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Cold front will stretch roughly from the Florida Big Bend northeast
into the Carolinas Saturday morning. The front will be slow to push
east through the day and will keep rain chances going through the
eastern third of the CWA into the afternoon hours. Saturday evening
the front will be east of I75 with with rain chances coming to an
end. To the west, high pressure will stretch through the Mid-South
and southern Plains which will build in behind the front. Winds
gradually switch from the northwest immediately behind the front to
the northeast Sunday as the front pushes to the east coast. Despite
the frontal location Sunday, a few light showers may make it towards
I75 in the afternoon hours and kept a slight chance mention in the
forecast. Temperature-wise Saturday a good amount of clouds linger
around and with cooler northwest winds set up, highs will mainly be
in the mid 80s. For Sunday, as fewer clouds are expected we will
have highs increase slightly into the upper 80s and near 90s closer
to the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 236 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Over the weekend the upper pattern becomes more amplified with
ridging through the central US with two cutoff lows; one in the
desert southwest and the other in the southeast US/southern
Appalachians. Meanwhile, Invest 94L (possibly future TC Imelda) will
gradually lift north through the Bahamas Sunday. The cutoff low in
the southeast may help pull 94L towards the Carolinas/southern
Appalachians early into mid next week but its too early and low
confidence at this stage. The forecast for our area is generally
dry outside a few showers along the I75 corridor Monday. High
temperatures through next week will hold fairly steady in the mid
to upper 80s with a general northerly component to the winds
shifting between northeast to northwest.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 236 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
This TAF cycle focuses on timing/duration of convection. Have
prevailing precip at ECP/DHN to start with thunder near the coast as
seen on current radar. Latest HRRR model run shows SHRA/TSRA moving
east across the FL terminals early this AM, so there is a 8-12Z
TEMPO at ECP and 12-18Z PROB30 at TLH to acct. Higher confidence in
thunder at VLD between 14 & 18Z. Second convective batch develops
this aftn across SE AL/SW GA where PROB30 -TSRA are in place for
DHN/ABY. Expect flt restrictions with storms and low cigs until
about midday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 236 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Southwesterly flow prevails ahead of the cold front, with a
gradual wind shift to northerly as the front passes beginning
Saturday. The front brings showers and thunderstorms to the
marine zones through Saturday, so expect isolated cells with
heavier rain, wind gusts, lightning activity, and the possibility
for some waterspouts. Behind the front, favorable marine
conditions are expected though an uptick to moderate north to
northwest winds are possible early next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 236 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
A cold front slowly pushing through the region brings high
coverage of showers and thunderstorms today. Widespread wetting
rains appear likely from this activity with storms capable of
gusty/erratic winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy
downpours. Precipitation winds down from west to east as drier
post-frontal NW winds filter in on Saturday. A dry airmass limits
rain chances to the I-75 corridor to the SE FL Big Bend. High
afternoon dispersions are forecast for parts of the FL Panhandle
and SE AL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 236 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
While showers and storms over the next couple of days may produce
pockets of heavy rainfall, very dry antecedent conditions are
expected to inhibit any substantial flooding threat.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   83  69  86  67 /  70  40  30  10
Panama City   81  69  87  69 /  80  30  10   0
Dothan        82  66  86  65 /  50  20  10   0
Albany        84  67  86  66 /  50  30  20   0
Valdosta      85  68  86  67 /  60  50  40  10
Cross City    88  71  87  69 /  50  70  70  10
Apalachicola  82  71  85  71 /  80  60  20  10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion