Paicines, California Weather Forecast Discussion

210
FXUS66 KMTR 040425
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
925 PM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 814 PM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025
- Warmer and drier this weekend, with moderate offshore wind
   expected from Saturday - Tuesday in the higher elevations
- Next chances for rain come in the later part of next week
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 814 PM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Showers have diminished across the region, and with no more
precipitation expected through the night, KMUX radar has been
placed into clear air mode. The strong northwest winds are also
diminishing, with weather stations near the immediate coast
reporting gusts generally around 20 to 25 mph, barring the Point
Reyes PGE station where the latest reported gust was 36 mph. The
current satellite image shows stratus developing along the
southern coast of the San Mateo Peninsula north of Davenport and
the Monterey-Salinas area. No changes to the forecast at this
time.
DialH
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 143 PM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025
(This evening through Saturday)
Isolated rain showers linger over the southern coastal waters and
the Central Coast this afternoon. However, they appear to be
diminishing in coverage as the main mid/upper level low pressure
shifts towards Nevada. Temperatures this afternoon be cool, warming
only into the lower 60s near the coast to lower 70s inland. Surface
based cape will increase with daytime heating to around 100-300 J/kg
and PWAT values around 0.80" this afternoon across the North Bay and
interior East Bay before diminishing after sunset. Thus, rain shower
chances, and a non-zero chance for isolated thunderstorm will
continue across the aforementioned areas through this evening.
As the low pressure shifts further inland into the Intermountain
West, northwesterly winds will increase through this evening and
again on Saturday afternoon and evening. This will result in a
drying trend into the upcoming week. Thus, temperatures will drop to
or just below seasonal averages.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1208 AM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025
(Saturday night through Thursday)
While the weather will remain nice with seasonal temperatures and
sunny afternoons through the weekend, the pattern will gradually
evolve. As the deep trough that was responsible for our disturbed
weather this week slides west of the Rocky Mountains by late
Saturday, high surface pressure will build in its wake. Meanwhile,
a weak thermal trough will develop over the Central Valley and
get nudged to the coast by a 500 mb cut-off low over the NE
Pacific. This will flip the pressure gradient and cause winds to
shift from the typical NW to an offshore N or NE direction
starting as early as late Saturday. The PGE-WRF ensemble SFO-WMC
gradient envelope bottoms out anywhere from -4 mb to -9 mb on
Monday morning. While it still looks like a moderate strength
event, the forecast trend has been gradually increasing this
gradient. Offshore winds in October can bring fire weather
concerns, but the moderate speed and recent wet weather are
mitigating factors this time. Outside of fire weather concerns, offshore
winds this time of year tend to bring really nice weather to the
Bay Area and Central Coast with warm temperatures and clear
skies.
After the offshore winds die down, another cold front is likely
late next week. GEFS IVT ensemble members all stay below 250 kg/ms
with no chance of rain through Thursday, but longer range
guidance hints that more substantial rain is possible by Friday.
4/50 ECMWF ensemble members show Santa Rosa receiving over 1" of
rain in 24 hours, with the ensemble mean near 0.25" on an
increasing trend. There is still a lot timing and intensity
uncertainty with this pattern, and a few members (18, 38, 39, 48)
don`t develop the coastal low pressure system at all and stay
totally dry next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 925 PM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR-MVFR except patchy valley fog /IFR-LIFR/ late tonight and
Saturday morning. Mainly west to northwest winds 5 to 12 knots
except light cool air drainage winds in the valleys late tonight
and Saturday morning.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR except tempo MVFR 12z-16z Saturday. West
wind diminishing to 10 knots tonight. West wind near 10 knots
Saturday.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR-MVFR. West to northwest winds 5 to
10 knots tonight. Light southeast winds in the valleys late
tonight and Saturday morning. Winds west to northwest 10 to 15
knots Saturday afternoon and early evening.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 814 PM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Fresh to gale force breezes are forecast, especially for the outer
waters near and north of Pigeon Point tonight into the pre-dawn
hours Saturday. This will translate to steep and rough seas up to
10 feet resulting in hazardous boating conditions. Winds abate
after through sunrise Saturday, however, fresh to near gale-force
northerly winds resume Saturday afternoon. Winds and seas ease
next week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay-Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa
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NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion