057 FXUS63 KILX 061847 AFDILXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 147 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures with highs in the low to mid 70s over the weekend will give way to above normal temps with highs in the mid to upper 80s by the middle of the upcoming week.
- A dry spell continues across central Illinois with precip chances only 10% or less over the next seven days.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
A blocking upper level ridge centered over the Intermountain West this afternoon will very slowly translate east over the next week resulting in a gradual warming trend locally along with a continued stretch of primarily dry weather.
This afternoon, an expansive surface high is centered across the Great Plains with ridging extending east into portions of the lower Ohio Valley. Light northwest flow continues lee of the ridge axis over central Illinois with temps running well below normal (normal highs are lower/mid 80s) and dew points only in the 40s. The surface high will inch east across central Illinois Sunday. Winds will be slightly lighter, but otherwise expect a near carbon copy of today`s weather with morning lows in the 40s and afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s under mostly sunny skies.
Through the first half of the upcoming week, northwest flow aloft across central Illinois will gradually shift to our east, replaced by an amplified upper level ridge. A brief buckle in the ridge could bring some precip to the region Tuesday, but chances are better over the Upper Midwest with only a 10% chance locally. Surface ridge axis will shift to New England, but with ridging extending well to the southwest into the southern Great Plains. This will cut off any notable moisture return from the Gulf and dew points should continue to mix down into the 40s each afternoon Monday and Tuesday.
Temps will gradually undergo a warming trend as the upper ridge establishes itself over the Midwest through the first half of next week. Highs in the mid 70s Monday will give way to low 80s Tuesday followed by temps pushing near the 90 degree mark Wednesday and Thursday.
Deubelbeiss
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.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
High pressure will remain positioned just west of the terminals through the rest of today resulting in a modest northwest breeze across central Illinois. Winds will gust up to around 20kt through sunset this evening. As the ridge axis moves over central Illinois overnight into Sunday, winds will drop to 6-7kt or less. They will favor a northwesterly direction but may be variable at times.
Deubelbeiss
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.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion