Palmhurst, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

154
FXUS64 KBRO 301814
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
114 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 114 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
- Low to medium (20-50%) rain chances return Friday through early
  next week, mainly along and east of US-281.
- Near normal temperatures continue with highs mostly in the low
  to mid 90s.
- A Moderate risk of rip currents is likely by the end of the week
  and into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Ridging aloft will prevail through at least Thursday across Deep
South Texas, which will result in generally rain-free conditions
and seasonable temperatures. By Friday and the weekend, the ridge
is expected to shift further west as an upper level trough and mid
level low set up over the Southeast US and Gulf Coast. Well also
start to see an increase in precipitable water values (around
1.4-1.6 inches), although there are still discrepancies among
deterministic and ensemble guidance. This set up should allow for
daily low to medium (20-40%) rain chances along/east of US-281 as
the sea breeze moves inland. Heading into early next week, there
are some indications among guidance that precipitable water values
will increase around or above 1.6-1.7 inches, which may support
some locally heavy rain with any activity that develops next week.
The uptick in humidity will result in heat index values just
around 100 degrees Sunday into early next week.
For the Lower Texas beaches, the current forecast remains at a low
risk of rip currents through at least tomorrow evening. However, a
moderate risk of rip currents is expected heading into the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR will prevail through the TAF period at all TAF sites. Light
north to northeasterly winds generally below 10 knots will
persist through the afternoon before becoming light and variable
tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail with light to
moderate winds and low to moderate seas. Low to medium (20-60%)
rain chances return Friday through the weekend and into early next
week. Locally enhanced winds and seas will be possible within any
activity.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             72  92  73  92 /   0  10   0  20
HARLINGEN               67  94  68  93 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN                 71  97  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         68  97  68  98 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      80  87  80  87 /   0   0  10  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     72  90  72  89 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...22

NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion