Paradise, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

852
FXUS63 KAPX 231021
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
621 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon.
- Areas of dense fog are possible again tonight.
- Shower chances remain into mid week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Slow meandering upper low will continue to plague the region with
shower chances today. The center slightly drifts/retrogrades to the
south and southwest today and tonight, with the upper low position
moving from approximately just north of the SOO to the ~Straits or
so tonight. Lift from this feature will result in showers and a few
storms through the period, especially this afternoon and evening.
Winds shifted or will shift to the northwest today denoting a subtle
boundary passage which will shunt some moisture/instability to the
southeast to some extent.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Showers/thunderstorms:
Slow meandering upper low continues to plague the region with shower
and storm chances today. Latest 00Z guidance has come into decent
agreement on a decisive boundary that has moved or will move through
the region early today with less sfc moisture and thus much less
instability during the daytime hours today. As a result, strong
thunderstorm potential seems quite low this afternoon. Best
locations for showers and storms will be close to the upper low
center and across southeast portions of the county warning area.
Thus these locations will feature the highest POPs and thunderstorm
chances, although some of the latest guidance really keeps the rain
chances quite low today so we`ll see. An isolated stronger storm
cannot be ruled out, although the current progged thermodynamic
environment looks less impressive than previously thought and
looking increasingly unlikely. Locally heavy downpours will be the
primary concern with the strongest storm(s), cannot completely rule
out an isolated instance of gusty storm or small hail as well.
Fog development:
Another round of fog is anticipated later tonight as temperatures
cool to saturation and moisture returns inland off Lake Huron.
Certainly is supported when looking at the HREF/NBM
statistical/probability guidance, in addition to deterministic HRRR
visibility, which suggests the potential for at least patchy areas
of significant visibility reduction, especially across interior
locales.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Day 2-3 (Wednesday - Thursday):
Upper low continues to linger across the region during the mid week
time frame with modest moisture and weak instability. Consequently,
the isolated to scattered shower and isolated storm threat will
remain during the Wednesday - Thursday time frame.
Subtleties/energies within the upper low circulation, and the
position of the upper low in general, will determine slight upticks
in shower potential which will be monitored in the coming days. A
few downpours will be the main concern with activity during this
time frame.
Days 4-7 (Friday - Monday):
Upper low finally washes out to the east late week and into the
weekend as sfc low pressure system tracks across the interior
northeast. Troughing passes well to the north across Ontario this
weekend, with generally drier conditions overall during this time
frame. This system may draw in a touch cooler temperatures, at least
briefly and relatively, toward the end of the weekend into early
next week. Otherwise, temperatures through the entirety of the
forecast area remain near to several degrees above late September
normals.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 617 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Widespread MVFR to LIFR producing fog/mist/stratus expected to
gradually mix out this morning...likely leaving a mix of MVFR
to VFR cigs this afternoon. Likely looking at another round of
significant fog/mist/stratus development by later this
evening through the overnight. A few more showers and
thunderstorms expected today, but confidence remains very low
both with regards to timing and overall coverage of these
showers. Light winds through the period.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MSB

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion