Passumpsic, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

034
FXUS61 KBTV 072337
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
737 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Drier and cooler weather will prevail for much of the week as high
pressure becomes well established across the region. Nights could
feature patchy valley fog and even some frost in the cold hollows of
the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. The next widespread rain
chance does not look to occur until after next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 111 PM EDT Sunday...Lingering showers will exit the region this
evening, ushering in dry weather through Monday as surface high
pressure and weak upper level ridging builds in. Clearing skies will
allow temperatures to fall into the mid 30s and 40s tonight (several
degrees below seasonal averages), and locations that received rain
today are most likely to have some patchy radiation fog develop. An
upper level shortwave will likely keep westerly flow just above the
surface going enough to prevent a widespread dense valley fog event
tonight, but some areas could also see some passing thick low
clouds. Tomorrow will be quiet, cool, and dry directly under surface
high pressure with temperatures rising into the 60s and lower 70s
under a mainly sunny sky and a light westerly breeze.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 111 PM EDT Sunday...With surface high pressure directly
overhead Monday night, clear skies and calm winds will work together
to create conditions favorable for radiational cooling. Guidance
suggests that lows could reach as low as the 30s to mid 40s with
frost possible in the cold hollows of the Adirondacks and the
Northeast Kingdom. Patchy fog is also not out of the question in the
typical valley spots of Vermont, though any thicker fog development
could shelter spots from receiving frost.
Tuesday will be a seasonable, dry, quiet day with highs in the lower
and mid 70s, light but increasing southerly flow, and a sunny sky.
Winds on Lake Champlain are expected to gust up to 10-15 knots. This
southerly flow will help increase clouds slightly Tuesday night, and
temperatures won`t be quite as cool that night in the upper 30s to
lower 50s while the core of high pressure shifts northeastward. Once
again, under the influence of the high pressure, valley radiation
fog is possible, particularly along the Connecticut River of Vermont
and New Hampshire, but the increased southerly winds will keep it
fairly isolated. Winds on Lake Champlain could gust up to about 15-
20 knots.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 111 PM EDT Sunday...The prolonged period of quiet weather will
continue right through the last half of the week as high pressure
dominates the region`s weather. A cold front will sink southward out
of Canada and through New England/NY on Thursday, but with little in
the way of moisture, don`t expect much more than a wind shift and
increased cloud cover as it moves through. We`ll get a reinforcing
shot of cool, dry air behind the front, which will lead to some
chilly nights for late week. Note that the latest NBM indicates
50-80% probability of lows dropping below 36F both Thursday and
Friday nights in our usual cold prone spots in the Adirondacks and
Northeast Kingdom. Anyone that still has sensitive outdoor plans
should monitor trends closely as we head through the week. Daytime
highs will be somewhat variable, warmest mid week ahead of the cold
front, then dropping into just the 60s on Friday, with a bit of a
warming trend for the weekend. Precipitation chances are pretty much
nil through the entire extended period, but an upper trough swinging
overhead may bring a few showers later Saturday into Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00z Tuesday...Isolated shower activity along the
international border is dwindling. Some clouds around 6000-9000 ft
agl will gradually decrease, though pockets of stratus around 4000-
6000 ft agl may meander into parts of northern New York past 00z.
Outside some winds around 500-1000 ft agl until 08-09z, conditions
appear favorable for fog. Visibility in and out of IFR could begin
around 05-07z across KEFK, KMPV, and KSLK, and then
persistently trend towards 1/2SM FG through 12-13z. Forecast
soundings hint at conducive weather conditions for fog near KRUT
and KMSS as well. Beyond 13z, winds will be west to northwest
around 4 to 8 knots with a little cloud cover.
Outlook...
Monday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Haynes

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion