Paul, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

338
FXUS65 KPIH 092243
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
443 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unsettled pattern continues with showers and storms this
  afternoon and much of this week.
- Breezy and warm on Wednesday.
- Cooler temperatures for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 139 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Showers and thunderstorms are already ongoing this afternoon
throughout parts of Eastern Idaho. Coverage is expected to increase
as storms work northward through the rest of today. These showers
and storms are coming from an area of low pressure off the coast of
northern California that is expected to slowly make its way inland
over the next several days. This keeps our pattern unsettled for
most of this week. Storms today will be isolated to scattered in
nature and produce some gusty winds between 30 to 45 mph, brief
downpours, and small hail. The best chance for a wetting rain will
be up in parts of the Central Mountains and the Eastern Highlands.
The HREF shows about a 50 to 70 percent chance of a tenth of an inch
of QPF up around Stanley and Challis and a 20 to 40 percent chance
from Victor to Ashton in the 24 hours of 1 PM today to 1 PM
Wednesday. While most of the HIRES models show activity tapering off
tonight, the NAM wants to keep around some spotty showers and even
an isolated storm or two in the Central Mountains and Snake River
Plain until almost 3 AM. The showers in the Central Mountains seems
a bit more likely, so the forecast does reflect that potential.
With the showers and storms around today, temperatures will top out
in the upper 70s to low 80s for most with afternoon wind gusts
around 15 to 20 mph. Wednesday will be very similar, but storms in
the afternoon look a bit more isolated. Temperatures will be nearly
a repeat on Wednesday afternoon and wind gusts will range from 20 to
30 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 139 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
The long term period of the forecast looks to remain unsettled as an
upper level low slowly spins across the region later this week and
into the weekend. This will usher in a prolonged period of cooler
temperatures along with daily shower/storm chances throughout
eastern Idaho. Seems like the higher terrain regions have the better
rain chances on any given day but valley locations will not be
removed entirely from the rain chances. They`ll just be a bit lower.
Best chances each day will be primarily during the afternoon/evening
hours but given the pattern, can`t completely rule at least a stray
shower out at any given time. With clouds and precip expected to be
prevalent, along with lower H5 heights in association with the low,
temperatures will generally top out in the 60s and 70s each day
throughout all of eastern Idaho. Despite the cooler daytime highs,
overnight lows won`t be all that chilly as more moisture and cloud
cover will tend to insulate the area from ideal radiational cooling
so lows mainly in the 40s and 50s are expected outside of the
normally colder spots like near Stanley and Copper Basin. As we get
into early next week, models show the potential for another low to
move into the Pacific NW although not seeing much in the way of
model consistency with the timing and placement of this feature.
Nevertheless, certainly seems like the general pattern is trying to
shift away from summer and move into autumn.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 442 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Isolated to scattered convection will move north this
evening. Continuing the PROB30 at IDA and DIJ into the evening
hours. Otherwise, most models show a scattered to broken mid/high
level deck for most of overnight. Most of the region looks dry.
There seems to be some support for VCSH around SUN later in the
night especially on the NAM but to some degree with the HRRR as
well. The NAM also develops some showers east of PIH and IDA,
potentially affecting DIJ, but the HRRR doesn`t support this. So
TAFs for now include VCSH at SUN but not DIJ. Winds tonight look
relatively light. Expect breezier conditions Wednesday afternoon,
especially at IDA and PIH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 139 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
South to southwest upper flow continues over the region today
keeping temperatures warm with continued shower and storm chances
the next few days. Later tomorrow and especially on Thursday, an
upper low is poised to move over the area and remain in place
through late week and into the weekend. This will bring a prolonged
a period of cooler temperatures and daily precipitation chances.
Highest precip chances will be across the higher terrain areas but
can`t rule out valley precip either. As this low departs later in
the weekend, models try to bring another one into the Pacific NW
early next week but still a bit of uncertainty on the placement and
timing of this feature.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AMM
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...McKaughan

NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion