Payson, Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

576
FXUS65 KSLC 060855
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
255 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Utah and southwest Wyoming will see dry conditions
through at least midweek with a steady warming trend. Tropical
moisture may return to the area late in the week, bringing
increased potential for showers and thunderstorms through the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Wednesday)...Seeing little in the way
of cloud cover over Utah and southwest Wyoming, with just
scattered clouds over portions of northern Utah and southwest
Wyoming. The weekend Pacific trough has pulled away from the area,
leaving a much colder airmass in its wake. Most of the normally
cooler valleys over the area will see temperatures near or just
below freezing this morning. This will impact ongoing agricultural
operations in some valleys, where freeze warnings have been
issued.
A Rex Block pattern is expected to develop over the Pacific
tonight into tomorrow, keeping conditions dry over the area
through the middle of the week. Maxes are expected to run 5-10F
below seasonal normals today with a steady warming trend
continuing through midweek.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Wednesday)...Dry southwest flow with
warming conditions will be in place Wednesday. This will be due to a
ridge to the southeast and a longwave trough off the coast of
Washington and Oregon. After cooler than normal conditions to start
the week, Wednesday will be near or slightly warmer than normal.
Valley highs will be in the low 70s, with 80s for far southern Utah.
There will be minimal change in the synoptic set up Thursday. A
tropical system, what was Hurricane Priscilla, will track northwest
off the coast of Baja California. This track with the location of
the other synoptic features will result in very good moisture
advection into the southwest U.S. Thursday will be the start of the
moisture advection, so there will be minimal change from Wednesday.
Temperatures will warm to near 80F for many valleys. Precipitable
water values will climb through the day, but peak only around 0.8"
in far southern Utah. With minimal forcing and limited moisture,
there will be isolated or scattered showers for southern Utah, with
dry conditions elsewhere.
Moisture advection will continue Friday, with precipitable water
values around 1-1.25" in southern Utah and 0.5-0.75" in northern
Utah. The longwave trough that will be to the northwest will eject
inland Friday into Saturday, so there will be better dynamics and
more moisture throughout for Friday. With the strong moisture surge
and sufficient forcing, Friday will be a wet day for southern Utah.
The National Blend of Models (NBM) QPF ranges from 0.5-1.5" for much
of southern Utah. This will bring a flood and flash flood threat to
not only slot canyons and other vulnerable locations, but also urban
areas. There is uncertainty in where the greatest rainfall will be,
but good confidence in rain through Friday and into Saturday for
that portion of Utah. Conditions will be drier northward, with more
scattered showers than consistent rain.
As the trough from the west tracks inland Saturday, ensembles are in
good agreement that a cold front with that system will track in from
the northwest. There is uncertainty on timing, but forcing will
enhance, while precipitable water values of 0.8-1.0" will be in
place for most of Utah. Depending on timing and track of the
longwave trough, Saturday could be a rainy day throughout southwest
Wyoming and northern Utah. Like southern Utah Friday, the set up
will be favorable for urban flooding.
Behind the front, most likely by Sunday, cooler conditions will
build in. Valley high temperatures will be around 60F with much
drier conditions. Showers will likely last much of the day for
southwest Wyoming and northern Utah.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...Light southeast winds will transition to
northwest around 17Z. Clear or mostly clear conditions will last
through the TAF period.
.Rest of Utah and Southwest Wyoming...Light and variable winds will
transition to north or northwest from 15Z-00Z with clear or mostly
clear conditions throughout.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...With a Rex Block pattern developing over the
Pacific, Utah will see dry conditions with temperatures warming to
near seasonal normals by midweek. As this pattern breaks down
later in the week, southerly flow will draw tropical moisture
northward into the state, bringing increasing relative humidities
and rain chances into the upcoming weekend.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for UTZ114-116-118-
     119-122.
WY...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
LONG TERM/AVIATION...Wilson
For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

NWS SLC Office Area Forecast Discussion