Pe Ell, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

520
FXUS66 KSEW 280322
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
822 PM PDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.UPDATE...No changes made to this evening`s update. The
previous discussion remains below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...A weak frontal system has arrived along the northwest
coast this afternoon, with clear skies throughout the rest of
western Washington. Widespread rain is expected to fill in late
Sunday into Monday, with successive systems arriving mid and late
week. Periods of breezy conditions are also expected throughout
the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...Mid and high clouds have
arrived along the northwest coast and portions of the northern
interior. Clear skies prevail throughout the rest of western
Washington. Highs this afternoon and into Sunday will be in the
mid 70s. Changes are afoot as of Sunday afternoon as more
widespread rain fills into the area into Monday. Cooler
temperatures and rain accumulations through late Monday night
could be around two tenths of an inch in Puget Sound and 1-2
inches along the coast. Breezy winds will develop Sunday afternoon
into Monday along the coast and through the eastern Strait of Juan
de Fuca. There is a slight chance (10-15%) of thunderstorms along
the coast and portions of the Cascade foothills on Monday evening,
but strong support for this in the pattern is generally lacking,
but not fully improbable.
A stronger system will arrive on Tuesday, lasting through
Wednesday. This system has more atmospheric river characteristics
and will bring more significant rainfall totals to the area. Total
QPF from Tuesday through the end of the week brings around an inch
of rain in the lowlands, 2-3 inches in the Olympics and around 1-2
inches in the Cascades. This will be very beneficial rainfall for
area fires and for drought starved vegetation. Of note, winds will
also be elevated during this system, with stronger gust potential
along the coast and north interior. These elevated southerly winds
could cause localized power outages and small tree limb damage
namely along the coast, with some potential lasting in areas of
Everett north to Bellingham and San Juan Islands. Gusts and exact
strength of the winds will be refined as the event nears.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...The parent low pressure
system will linger off the coast through the end of the week, with
some uncertainty in the extended range on whether it tracks south
or moves straight into the Washington coast by next weekend.
Confidence is moderate to high in showery and generally unsettled
weather lingering through the end of the week. Depending on the
track of the low, next weekend could remain showery, or start to
clear up somewhat as weak ridging takes place behind the departing
low.
21
&&
.AVIATION...Flow aloft is westerly and will turn more
southwesterly as a frontal system approaches late Sunday. Clouds
are beginning to increase this afternoon along the coast
(terminals along the coast will be the first to drop to IFR/LIFR,
as is the case with KUIL). The interior terminals will hold on to
VFR through tonight, however the push is expected to bring
IFR/LIFR stratus into much of the interior Sunday morning
(arriving 10-14Z). Additionally, the visibilities will likely drop
due to mist and/or fog in the south interior/coast, and a couple
pockets in the northwest interior Probabilities for IFR/LIFR
ceilings in the interior remain around 40-60%. Partial
scattering/lifting to VFR is expected in the interior from 18-21Z,
though the coast may remain in MVFR/IFR through the day as the
first showers arrive late Sunday evening. Winds will turn
northerly this afternoon 5-10 kt becoming light and variable
tonight, then becoming southwesterly 4-8 kt Sunday afternoon.
KSEA...VFR conditions through tonight, with winds becoming northwest
5-10 kt this afternoon through the evening - becoming light north to
south overnight. Ceilings will build back in tonight, with a 40-60%
chance of IFR ceilings by 14Z, which will lift up to VFR from 18Z-
21Z. Winds Saturday will be out of the southwest 4-8 kt.
HPR
&&
.MARINE...High pressure inland will weaken as a trough/frontal
system approach the region tomorrow evening/Monday. Current small
craft advisories remain in place through tonight due to seas above
10 ft still currently being observed in the outer coastal waters.
For tonight/Sunday, a couple areas of patchy fog/low stratus are
possible over the coastal waters (which may reduce visibilities).
Seas tonight/Sunday morning are expected to drop to 6-8 ft.
The first front passing through tomorrow will start to produce winds
exceeding 20 kt from the south in the coastal waters in the
afternoon, continuing through early Monday morning. A few of the
gusts may exceed 35 kt (20-30% probability). The winds are also
expected to produce small craft impacts in the Northern Inland
Waters, Admiralty Inlet, and East Strait of Juan de Fuca areas
Monday morning. The risk of wind gusts exceeding 35 kt is 40% (in
the East Strait of Juan de Fuca). Seas with this front will increase
back to 8-10 ft.
A stronger frontal/low pressure system will pass through Tuesday
through Wednesday. There is a higher likelihood of gale gusts over
the coastal waters with this system. Remaining waters will likely
see small craft impacts with this system. Seas will also increase
substantially in the coastal waters up to 13-18 ft through as late
as Thursday, before dropping back below 10 ft.
HPR
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10
     Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
     10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$

NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion