Peck, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

136
FXUS63 KDTX 300956
AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
556 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- No significant weather nor precipitation expected through the next
seven days.
- Above normal temperatures retreat to more seasonable readings mid-
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
High pressure has become established across northern Ontario
resulting in a northeasterly wind field across the region today.
Winds funneling down Saginaw Bay will reach MBS leading to gusts
into the teens today, with lighter winds found across the rest of
the taf sites. Skies will again be clear with continued feed of dry
air into the region. Even with the dry air, there is still enough
shallow moisture advecting off the lakes to produce some patchy fog
along the shorelines. Best chance of occurrence at a taf site
would be MBS, with a non zero chance at DTW/YIP as well.
For DTW/D21 Convection...Convection will not occur through the TAF
period.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* None.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
DISCUSSION...
A longwave mid-upper ridge continues to translate over Great Lakes
today bringing stable conditions and no precipitation to speak of
through the remainder of the work week. Surface to 850 mb flow
becomes more north to northeast oriented on the south end of a
strong high pressure emerging out of central Canada. This draws a
backdoor cold front through southeast Michigan early today bringing
daytime highs down a notch to the upper 70s to 80 degrees for most
of southeast Michigan. The exception will be on the shoreline areas
of the Thumb and Bay County that will be in the low-mid 70s.
The upper ridge axis pivots across the central and eastern Great
Lakes Wednesday and Thursday while the aforementioned surface high
drifts into eastern Canada and the northeast CONUS. The persistent
lower level flow out of the east to northeast will lead to advection
of slightly cooler thermal profiles. Daily highs for the first two
days of October will be down towards normal values around 70 degrees
for inland areas. The lakeshore areas will again be slightly cooler
in the 60s for Wednesday, but return to around 70 for Thursday. Only
other note for Wednesday and Thursday will be an increase in high
clouds.
Warm advection ensues Friday into the weekend as deeper southwest
flow ushers in 850 mb temperatures back into the mid teens C.
Daytime highs climb back above normal in the low-mid 80s. Over the
weekend, high pressure ridge sets up over the southeast CONUS while
a Pacific wave crosses the Rockies and tracks across the upper
Midwest/northern plains. While moisture quality improves slightly,
frontal features set up across Lake Superior and to the north. Thus,
dry weather persists across southeast Michigan.
MARINE...
High pressure slides across Ontario today, while last night`s cold
front washes out over central Lower Michigan. Resulting northeast
flow increases this afternoon pushing gusts above 25 knots and waves
over 5 feet to support Small Craft Advisories. Winds veer as the
high settles into New England through the rest of the week, bringing
conditions below advisory thresholds by Wednesday morning for Lake
Huron. Brief period of west flow Wednesday may boost conditions
toward advisory criteria for western Lake Erie, followed by quiet
marine conditions as winds continue to veer and high pressure stays
in control.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late
     tonight for MIZ048-054-055.
Beach Hazards Statement from noon EDT today through Wednesday
     morning for MIZ049.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for
     LHZ421-441.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Wednesday
     for LHZ422-442-443.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Wednesday
     for LEZ444.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DRK
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......MV
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion