Pembroke, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

730
FXUS61 KCAR 251747
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
147 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach from the west today, cross the
region tonight, then exit across the Maritimes Friday. High
pressure crosses the region Saturday, with a cold front then
crossing Sunday. High pressure builds in through mid next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1:47PM UPDATE...Minor tweaks to the ongoing forecast to update
for the precipitation moving into the area. 18z TAF Update below
as well.
Previous Discussion:
A low stratus deck extends across most of the forecast area
early this morning, with areas of fog, mostly tucked into river
valleys at this time. A low pressure system continues to
approach from the west, carrying the next round of soaking rain
to the forecast area. Rain should begin to enter the Central
Highlands and Bangor area this afternoon, then spread north and
east into the evening hours. Total rain amounts may approach 1
inch in the north, 1.5 inches across the Downeast region, and
may even approach 2 inches along the immediate coast, as a
deformation zone sets up across the Downeast region. The bulk of
the moderate to heavy rainfall will fall over the course of 3
to 6 hours, reducing the risk for flooding, though local ponding
is possible given how dried out soil has become, and decreased
drainage possible due to fallen leaves this autumn.
Conditions will quickly begin to clear out Friday morning,
though some showers may stick around the north through the day
on Friday. Temperatures will lift above average for this time of
the year, into the 70s across the entire forecast area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front crosses the region Friday night which may produce a
few light showers in northern regions during the later evening
time period but elsewhere should remain dry. Skies should clear
behind the cold front as high pressure builds into the region.
Some patchy fog possible Friday night as a result of the
increased low-level moisture due to the recent rains in
combination with clear skies. However, have lower confidence in
fog development due to the possibility winds may still have a
slight breeze overnight behind the front which would promote
mixing of the low-level moisture. Did also decrease min
temperatures by a degree Saturday night as there is some
potential for radiational cooling but concerns about winds not
being completely calm behind the front precluded a further
decrease.
Saturday is expected to be sunny and dry as high pressure moves
in overhead. Temperatures should be near to slightly above
normal. Some clouds return Saturday night as a cold front
approaches from the west.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
On Sunday, an upper-level trough lifts well north of Maine with
a cold front at the surface extending south into the region.
The limited moisture ahead of the boundary means showers are
unlikely but cannot be entirely ruled out. The cold front should
clear out by early Monday with high pressure building in behind
it. The high is likely to remain in place through mid-next week
resulting in dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal
Sunday/Monday, near normal to slightly above normal Tuesday, and
slightly below normal Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 18z TAF UPDATE...VFR/MVFR becoming IFR from south to
north this afternoon with SHRA becoming -RA. S winds 5-15kt.
Tonight, IFR/LIFR with RA likely potentially +RA especially at
BGR and BHB. Vsby/cigs in IFR/LIFR categories. S winds 5-15kt
gusting to 20kt possible. LLWS at BGR and BHB. Winds will
shift W-SW areawide after 06-08z ending LLWS. IFR/LIFR with
BR/VCSH through 11-13z before gradually improving through MVFR
to VFR by tomorrow mid to late morning. VFR in the afternoon
with 030-045 BKN cigs across the north and SCT cigs south.
Friday winds W-NW 10-15kt with occasional gusts up to 20kt.
SHORT TERM:
Friday night... Occasional MVFR with a slight chance of showers
early. Patchy fog possible after midnight. Otherwise, VFR.
W/NW winds around 5 knots.
Saturday...VFR. NW winds 5 to 10 knots.
Saturday night...VFR early. MVFR possible especially at
HUL/BGR/BHB. Patchy fog also possible at PQI and HUL. Light SW
winds.
Sunday...VFR. Light W/SW winds early becoming W at 5 to 10 kts.
Sunday night...Variable conditions with any patchy fog late.
Otherwise, VFR. W/SW winds 5 kts or less.
Monday...VFR. NW winds 5 to 10 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will gradually increase through the day today
as a low pressure system approaches from the west. Gusts will
surpass 25 kts on the coastal waters by tonight as the system
crosses the waters, while seas lift to 4 to 6 ft with a SE
swell. On the intracoastal waters, small craft advisory
conditions will be more marginal, though seas may still become 5
ft by tonight and gusts surpassing 20 kts. Small craft advisory
conditions will begin to diminish through the day on Friday,
with winds quickly tapering to around 10 kts and seas gradually
decreasing back towards 2 to 4 ft.
SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
Friday night through Sunday. Winds generally 10 kts or less out
of the NW Friday night changing to SW Saturday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Friday
     for ANZ052.
&&
$$
Near Term...AStrauser/Sinko
Short Term...Melanson
Long Term...Melanson
Aviation...AStrauser/Sinko/Melanson
Marine...AStrauser/Sinko/Melanson

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion