Penacook, New Hampshire Weather Forecast Discussion

565
FXUS61 KGYX 021753
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
153 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates the weather pattern into early next
week. One more cold night tonight brings frost potential, before
a warming trend develops with well above normal temperatures
lasting into the middle of next week. The next signal for
measurable precipitation arrives late Tuesday into Wednesday as
a cold front approaches from the west.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
For the rest of today, expect temperatures around normal for
this time of year with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 50s
across the north to the lower to mid 60s south and along the
coast.
As of this writing, expansive high pressure is centered over New
England and will slowly drift south through the day. As the high
slides south, light winds will shift to out of the south this
afternoon and south southwest tonight, bringing some return flow on
shore.
Seas will continue to relax through the day as the remnants of
Humberto move off towards Europe. However, the high rip current
risk will likely continue through late this afternoon.
With light winds prevailing overnight, we will likely see another
opportunity for at least some radiational cooling. One mitigating
factor could be a greater coverage of mid to high clouds that much
of the short term guidance is suggesting. Will still go a touch
cooler than straight NBM. Lows will range from the low to mid 30s
north, to the mid to upper 30s south. A few lower 40s will possible
along portions of the coast. Patchy frost will be possible over much
of the area and will highlight the potential in the HWO for now. The
usual valley fog will also be possible overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Warmer temperatures and pleasant weather will be the main
stories on Friday as highs climb back into the 70s for most of
the area with the exception of northern New Hampshire and
portions of the western Maine mountains. Here we should see
highs in the 60s. With high pressure still dominating the
weather pattern over the eastern CONUS, expect plenty of
sunshine with only a few clouds floating around. Lows on Friday
night will mainly be in the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pattern Overview: Deep layer ridging takes hold this weekend
through the first part of next week, allowing temperatures to
climb above normal. A frontal passage toward the middle of next
week looks like our next best chance of precipitation, but
amounts are uncertain as model spread is large.
Impacts and Key Messages:
* Above normal temperatures (near daily record highs) and dry
  conditions through the first part of next week, will maintain
  drought conditions.
Details: Saturday: 500mb ridging begins to build into the
region on Saturday as strong Canadian high pressure remains in
control at the surface. This will kick start a warming trend as
high temperatures climb into the 70s areawide, to around 80F in
southern New Hampshire and the southern Maine coast. Clear skies
and light winds should allow us to cool quite a bit Saturday
night, but the incoming warmer airmass limits low temperatures
to the mid- to upper 40s north of the mountains, and upper 40s
to low 50s south of the mountains.
Sunday and Monday: The warming trend continues into the first
part of next week as 850mb temperatures climb to around 13 to
14C by Monday. Sunday features high temperatures in the mid- to
upper 70s areawide, with some low 80s in the southern half of
New Hampshire. Monday looks to have more widespread low 80s
south of the mountains with areas to the north of the mountains
and along the coast more in the upper 70s. Forecast high
temperatures on Monday are near daily records, so this will be
an interesting trend to watch. Both nights look mild with
temperatures only bottoming out in the low 50s.
Tuesday-Thursday: Our ridging and high pressure depart on
Tuesday with a trough looking to swing in behind it out of the
Great Lakes Region. This comes with an attendant cold front and
looks to be our next best chance for some degree of
precipitation mid-week, but unsurprisingly at this time range
ensemble spread is quite large. The overall signal is good
however, but NBM`s widespread 60 to 70 percent PoPs are likely
too high. I wouldn`t consider that time period a wash just yet.
As mentioned, the spread in QPF within the long range ensembles
is large with 25th to 75th percentile differences over half an
inch, and even higher in the latest NBM run with spreads over an
inch. The bottom line at this point is this; confidence is
increasing that we will see some degree of showers mid- week,
but there is lower confidence in amounts and coverage.
Temperatures look to trend more seasonable through this period
as well.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...With the exception of the usual valley fog at night,
VFR conditions are expected through the 18z TAF period. KMHT,
KCON, KLEB, and KHIE could all see visibilities drop into IFR to
MVFR categories overnight. Winds will generally be light and
variable.
Long Term...VFR prevails through the first part of next week,
with no significant wind or low level wind shear expected.
Ceilings may trend downward ahead of an approaching front
Tuesday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions have subsided early this afternoon.
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern but
we will see an increase in southwest winds tonight with some
gusts to around 20kts possible.
Long Term...High pressure settles over the waters this weekend
keeping wind gusts and seas below SCA criteria through the day
Tuesday. An approaching front, may bring winds gusts to near
25kts Tuesday night.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Risk for Rip Currents until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MEZ023>027.
NH...High Risk for Rip Currents until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NHZ014.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Hargrove
LONG TERM...Baron

NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion