Penokee, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

274
FXUS63 KGLD 080849
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
249 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm today with highs in the 80s and maybe low 90s. There is a
  chance for severe storms to form in the afternoon, mainly
  impacting Northwest Kansas. Large hail would be the main
  threat.
- Temperatures are forecast to warm into the 80s and 90s through
  much of the week ahead. Daily storm chances are forecast, with
  the possibility for severe storms as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 246 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
During the early morning hours, showers and a few storms have made
their way across the area as a 500mb shortwave moves through the
Plains. The showers and storms have stayed sub-severe with
instability slowly lowering as the night has gone on. The showers
could persist through the remainder of the night and a few hours
past sunrise with a fairly moist profile through 500mb and the
shortwave moving slowly. The precipitation has largely hindered fog
development and kept temperatures in the 60s with the additional
cloud cover. That being said, those along and south of Highway 40
have been clearer, and could lower into the 50s and see some fog if
clear skies remain. There is also a chance that those along the
Nebraska border could clear and see similar conditions.
For the daytime hours, the forecast currently calls for a dryline to
sweep through most of the area as the low pressure system broadens
in the Plains. With this, the area would see any early cloud cover
burn off and temperatures would warm into the 80s and near 90
underneath sunny skies. Winds would also become more northerly and
lighter. That being said, there is an important caveat. Most
guidance suggests that the dryline stalls somewhere in our area,
likely in Northwest Kansas in a northeast to southwest orientation.
Those behind the dryline would be the ones who are warm and dry with
relatively lighter winds. Those ahead of the dryline would actually
have a chance for storms, with the potential for severe storms. The
consensus is that locales ahead of the dry line could see supercells
develop in an environment with almost 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE, mid-level
lapse rates around 8 C/km, and 0-6km shear around 30-40 kts. The
main inhibitor is that the drier air may move in faster above 850mb,
both reducing instability and capping things a bit. This seems to be
why most guidance does not want to fire storms off, in spite of the
good surface convergence boundary and the shortwave diving south
through the Plains. If storms did fire, be alert for large hail
generally around an inch, with hail up to 2.75 inches in any longer
lived supercells. With the current placement of the dryline in the
mid afternoon, roughly from McCook, NE to Leoti, KS, it is unlikely
that a storm would form and be in the area long enough for a
supercell to really get going (especially with downshear vectors of
40-45kts). Wind gusts could reach 50-60 mph, maybe stronger if a
supercell can form and have a good RFD surge. Continuing along with
discussing possibilities, if the dryline shoots farther west like
the HRRR is suggesting, then we are clear for today. If the dryline
manages to lag further west, our storm and severe chances will
increase, especially for eastern portions of the area. Would be a
good day to keep an eye out for updates.
For the evening and overnight hours, if the forecast holds and the
dryline moves through most of the area, we are looking at a mostly
clear night. Some showers and storms are forecast to dry and develop
west of us like they have been, but the drier air should really
lower the chances that they make it to the area. Winds are forecast
to try and hold around 10-15 mph for most of the night, but the
pressure gradient should weaken enough as the low shifts that some
areas go calm. For those who keep the winds up most of the night,
lows should drop to around 60. The rest of the area should cool into
the 50s. If the dryline does not push completely through the area,
then there will be a chance for fog for those along east of Highway
83 as low level moisture would remain in place.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 142 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Tuesday, as the northwestern low breaks down the ridge over the
Rockies, the low looks to slow to a crawl over the northern
Rockies and potentially Fujiwara if the center of the low
splits. This pattern will dominate the majority of the workweek:
500 mb high shifts its axis over the central Great Plains and
the slow moving 500 mb low over the Northern Rockies, with the
850 mb level seeing a high pressure system over the mid and
southern Mississippi River Valley regions as weak lows eject off
the Northern Rockies. This will allow a southerly LLJ to funnel
mid and low-level moisture into the CWA as well as warmer
temperatures. Due to the heat, moisture, and weak cold fronts,
there will be a nearly daily 20-35% chance of showers and weak
storms across the area. If a stronger low and cold front can
eject off the the Northern Rockies, all the ingredients will be
in place for severe storms. The NBM is starting to come around
with PoPs for the workweek, but still does not accurately
reflect the precipitation potential well. This means the PoPs
shown in the local forecasts on our web page are lower than what
forecaster confidence in precipitation is. Overall, forecaster
confidence in: daily showers and weak storms forming is 20-30%;
at least one day (Tues-Fri) seeing showers and weak storms is
70-75%; confidence in severe weather occurring at least one day
Tuesday- Friday is 10-15%. Friday is slowing becoming the
favored day for the column to support organized convection, but
there is a lot of uncertainty.
Temperatures throughout the next week will warm into the mid to
upper 80s with a few places seeing low 90s. Low temperatures
will cool into the upper 50s to mid 60s as low level moisture
and cloud cover will keep us fairly warm.
Over next weekend, the northwestern low looks to move over the
Great Plains, which could lead to some slightly cooler
temperatures and higher PoPs.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
***Update: Further upstream development of showers and storms
 across northeast Colorado into the southern portion of the
 Nebraska panhandle has led to the addition of a tempo for -tsra
 for MCK as well. Some guidance indicates another potential
 round of showers and storms moving through between 09-11Z. ***
GLD: Thunderstorms in Washington County, CO (at 0340Z) will
track east toward the KS border late this evening. If the
aforementioned storms persist long enough to progress into
northwest KS (~06-08Z), current observational trends suggest
that said storms would largely remain north of the Goodland
terminal. Low confidence with regard to storm coverage and
longevity. Sub-VFR conditions associated with fog are possible a
few hours on either side of sunrise Monday morning. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail. South winds at 12-17 knots this
evening will decrease to 7-12 knots early Monday morning. Winds
will veer to the SW by sunrise and shift to the NW during the
late morning. Light (~7-12 knot) NW winds are likely to prevail
through the remainder of the TAF period.
MCK: Sub-VFR conditions associated with fog are possible a few
hours on either side of sunrise Monday morning (similar to the
past few days). Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. S to SSE
winds at 10-15 knots will prevail this evening and overnight.
Winds will veer to the SW during the late morning or early
afternoon.. further veering to the WSW or W during the mid-
afternoon. Light WSW or W winds are expected to prevail through
the remainder of the TAF period.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Vincent/Trigg

NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion