Peyton, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

553
FXUS65 KPUB 202329
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
529 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer and drier for Sunday, with just minimal shower and
  storm activity expected over the higher terrain.
- Rather strong front to move across region late Monday, much
  cooler Tuesday into Wednesday with SNOW likely over some of
  the higher mtns.
- Warming up again late week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Currently...Broad upper ridge remains centered over Old Mexico and
will continue through the short term. A good amount of available
moisture lingering about today as evident from the widespread low
clouds and isolated convection this morning, and the scattered
convection ongoing across the higher terrain and adjacent plains
this afternoon. Temps as of 1 PM have climbed into the 60s to around
70F for the high valleys, and 70s to around 80F for the plains.
Tonight...An upper disturbance crossing CO today will continue
pushing to the east-southeast through the night, and this has been
the trigger to tap into available moisture for convection this
afternoon, and expected activity that should persist across the
eastern plains through the night, finally diminishing near the KS
border soon after midnight. Main threats from any convection today
will be lightning, erratic wind gusts to 45 mph, and brief periods
of moderate to perhaps heavy rain. Along the I-25 Corridor, the
window of highest probability of storm activity will be from 5 until
8 or 9 PM, which is of particular concern for all the various events
going on. Look for overnight low temps in the upper 30s to lower 40s
for the high valleys, and upper 40s to mid 50s for the plains.
Tomorrow...The upper shortwave pushes east out of the area, with
models indicating drier conditions through the day as the upper flow
remains westerly. Basically dry and warmer conditions are forecast
across the area, with just minimal convective activity expected over
the central mts and Pikes Peak region. While highs will be near
normal in the 70s for the high valleys, plan on slightly above
normal temps across the plains with highs in the 80s. Moore
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Monday...a strong cold front will likely be coming across the
region late in the day. Prior to the front, it will be warm
again, but I believe the front will come in a bit quicker than
guidance indicates, and temps may not be as warm as currently
indicated. Storms will likely be on the increase in the higher
terrain on this day, and will likely pick up in coverage over
the plains during the evening hours. SPC has the extreme eastern
plains under a marginal risk, and I would not be all that
surprised if this pushes back towards the mtns in later updates.
Tuesday...
Sharply cooler! Long range deterministic guidance show a closed low
pushing southeastward across northeast Colorado region, with the EC
being most farthest west. If this verifies, we may see our first
good chance of high elevation snow over the central and Pikes Peak
region during this time frame. DESI statistical guidance indicates
it will be quite cool over the fcst areas on Tuesday, and 60s to
L70s are expected over the plains, and it will likely be on the
breezy side all locations Tuesday afternoon. Scattered showers will
likely occur region-wide during the day Tuesday (especially the NW
slopes of the mtns). Some freezing conditions could occur over the
San Luis Valley Tuesday night/Wed morning.
It should be noted that if the cutoff low tracks farther south
and west, then potential higher elevation snow impacts will
likely increase over the region.
Wednesday...Temps will warm up slightly as compared to Tuesday. POPs
will be isolated this day with best chance s mtns.
Thursday into the weekend...
Warm up with mainly isolated pops.
No fire weather concerns are anticipated during this period.
/Hodanish
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 527 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
KALS...mainly VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. A few
showers/thunderstorms will remain possible across the San Luis
Valley into this evening, which may impact the terminal with
briefly reduced VIS and CIGS.
KCOS and KPUB...showers and thunderstorms will remain possible
at both terminals this evening, with reduced CIGS and VIS as
they pass. VFR conditions are forecast from mid to late evening
through Sunday afternoon.  Mozley
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOZLEY

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion