Philip, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

713
FXUS63 KUNR 241121
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
521 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions/above average temperatures through early next
  week
- Elevated fire weather conditions at times
&&
.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Tuesday)
Issued at 216 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
08z surface analysis had high over CO/WY with return flow slowly
increasing on the back side over WY. Clear skies per nighttime
microphysics RGB. Water vapour loop had upper ridge poking into
the northern plains.
Upper/thermal ridge builds into the area today/Thursday. Ridge
will flatten slightly Friday allowing a dry cool front to move
through, but temperatures will only drop a few degrees behind it.
Upper ridge builds back over the weekend into next week, but east
of the CWA resulting in southwest flow aloft. Right now, moisture
looks scant, so dry forecast for the next 7 days continues
reasonable per preponderance of ensemble guidance.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued At 521 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 216 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Sustained dry weather with above normal temperatures will bring
elevated fire weather conditions to parts of the area over the
next 7 days. Minimum relative humidities will drop into the teens
over northeastern WY/higher elevations of the Black Hills
Thursday. Minimum relative humidities in the 20s will be common
elsewhere through the forecast period. A few breezy spots will
occur, particularly Friday with a dry cool front passage.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Helgeson
AVIATION...Helgeson
FIRE WEATHER...Helgeson

NWS UNR Office Area Forecast Discussion