Pickford, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

041
FXUS63 KAPX 011818
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
218 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warming trend begins Thursday.
- Warm to very warm Friday into the weekend.
- Dry conditions through this weekend for most, with some  concern
  for elevated fire danger at times.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 216 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Amplified mid-upper level ridging remains
the rule over the eastern half to two-thirds of the country.  At the
surface, high pressure centered over Quebec this afternoon gradually
sags south over New England on Thursday. Northern MI progged to lie
on the western periphery of high pressure through the remainder of
the work week.
Forecast Details: Not a whole lot in the way of sensible weather
through the duration of the short term forecast period. East winds
this afternoon gradually veer more southerly with time tonight into
Thursday. Temps tonight expected to be on the chilly side,
especially interior northeast lower where the probability of winds
going calm for a period of time is the highest. Lows across these
areas progged to fall into the upper 30s with at least low potential
for some low 30s in the typically colder spots. Suppose some
localized/patchy frost not out of the question, but not expected to
be widespread enough to warrant a Frost Advisory at this time. Low-
mid 40s expected elsewhere -- warmest near the shorelines of the
Great Lakes.
Thursday afternoon`s high temps a handful of degrees
warmer than today -- generally ranging from the upper 60s to the mid-
70s area-wide. Thursday night`s low in the mid-40s to mid-50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 216 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Day 3-7 (Friday - Wednesday):
Not a ton of change overall through most of the upcoming weekend as
upper-level ridging remains in place across the eastern half of the
CONUS with sfc high pressure lodged over the Northeast/Atlantic
Coast. Warming trend will be notable starting Friday. By late in the
weekend, upstream troughing is expected to eject eastward toward the
nation`s midsection. Coinciding low pressure development over the
Plains is expected to trek northeastward to near James Bay by early
next week.  Fairly decent ensemble agreement that this will swing a
cold front across northern MI during the day late Sunday
night/Monday time frame. Much less confidence with respect to
meaningful rainfall as a result of that boundary or additional
wave(s) of energy that potentially follow through the middle of
next week.
Main story early in the long-term period will be a return of summer-
like heat. High temps Friday - Sunday expected to be in the 80s for
most areas, warmest Saturday when downsloping areas of northeast
lower look to tag the mid-80s (even some low probabilities of upper
80s). Many locations Friday - Sunday currently forecast to be less
than 5 degrees from record highs.
Aforementioned upstream troughing encroaches on the area late in the
weekend with breezy conditions developing Sunday. Given continued
warmth and dry air, this day presents the most glaring concern for
potential fire weather issues (some concern Friday/Saturday exists
as well, though).
By early-mid next week, cold frontal passage should return our
temperatures to more seasonable readings with at least some
potential for showers ahead of and along the incoming front by late
Sunday night - Monday. Additional rain chances Tuesday/Wednesday
with troughing sagging overhead and additional wave(s) trekking
through the parent flow.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR to prevail. Minimal low cloud cover, with the majority of CIGs
resulting from some high cloud intruding into the Great Lakes
region. Breezy E to SE winds continue through the day today,
tapering some tonight.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...HAD

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion