Picuris, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

666
FXUS65 KABQ 070505 AAB
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1105 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1103 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
  through this evening. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to
  flooding in areas of poor drainage, urban arroyos, and around
  wildfire burn scars. A few storms may become strong with high
  winds, hail, and frequent lightning strikes.
- A warming and drying trend will occur Sunday and Monday with
  isolated to scattered showers and storms favoring eastern areas.
- Wetter and more active weather looks to return Wednesday
  through Friday with a greater coverage of showers and storms
  with heavy rainfall, especially across western and central New
  Mexico.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1103 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Increased coverage of fog and cloud cover for tonight based on
locations that received significant rainfall during the afternoon
and evening.
Cancelled Flood Watches for Flash Flooding, since the risk of
heavy rainfall on burn scars has diminished.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 107 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
As of 1PM, eastern NM remains covered in a blanket of low clouds
while western NM has cleared out and storms have begun to pop up.
Storms have surprisingly developed in the south-central mountains
despite low clouds and cool temperatures, indicating that elevated
instability will play a significant role in today`s storm evolution.
Another big player in today`s storm outlook will be the shortwave
trough over northern AZ. This trough can be easily picked out on
satellite imagery as it approaches the NM border. Both the vorticity
associated with it and the dry mid-level air out ahead of it will
help to both provide lift and destabilization to western and central
NM as it treks across the state from west to east. While efficient
rainfall rates up to 2"/hour could create localized flash flooding
concerns in western and central NM, including the ABQ metro area,
storms should be moving fast enough to mitigate most impacts. Storms
rolling into the metro late afternoon/evening could impact the State
Fair once again so it would be a good idea to stay weather aware.
Meanwhile, a seasonably strong sfc high (1022mb) in northern OK has
kept easterly upslope flow in place across eastern NM and low clouds
have been slow to clear. There is a low to moderate chance that
patchy fog develops again along the central mountain chain
tonight/early tomorrow morning, but the passage of the shortwave
trough could keep sfc winds slightly more west/northwest than last
night and keep fog at bay. Dry air advection, subsidence aloft
associated with a shortwave trough, and the presence of sfc moisture
from this afternoon`s rainfall could create some patchy fog in the
valleys of central and western NM as well, but confidence was not
high enough yet to put in the forecast.
The aformentioned shortwave ridging and drier air will significantly
drop storm chances tomorrow. Northwest flow off the Sangre de Cristo
mountains will focus storms in the northeast highlands and plains,
with lesser coverage south of I-40. CAPE and bulk shear are both
marginal for severe storms in the northeast corner of the state,
even though most hi-res models are showing little to no storm
coverage in this area. If storms do initiate, they will have the
potential to produce large hail and damaging wind gusts, with large
hail being the predominant threat.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 107 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
A mid-level ridge will amplify over the spine of the Rocky mountains
on Monday, resulting in soaring high temps. A drier airmass will
also keep rain chances down, with only a few showers and storms over
the high terrain of western and northern NM both Monday and Tuesday
afternoons. By Wednesday, the ridge will begin breaking down as
troughing moves into The Great Basin. Mid-level moisture will be
advected in from the south, providing the fuel for more widespread
high-based showers and storms mid to late week. In addition,
increasing speed shear aloft associated with the upper-low will
increase the severe threat, particularity in the northern half of
the state. With fast storm motions and sfc dewpoints in the 40s and
low 50s, it will require training storms to produce flash flooding.
If southeast inflow sets up as some deterministic models are showing,
this could become an increasingly more likely scenario and will be
something to watch very closely in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue over
central and western areas this evening with mainly isolated
activity on the eastern plains. Isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms may then linger over eastern areas after
midnight. Patchy low clouds and fog will probably return to the
east slopes of the central mountain chain late tonight until mid
morning Sunday. We have lower confidence that MVFR conditions in
low clouds will return to the southeast plains including KROW
early Sunday morning, where there is roughly a 20 percent chance
of low cloud development. Sunday afternoon, isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will return along and east of
the central mountain chain. A few storms may turn severe by
producing large hail and/or damaging winds.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 7
days. Widespread showers and storms today decrease in coverage
Sunday through Tuesday then trend higher again mid to late next week
as moisture surges back into the region. Temperatures will rise
during the drier period early next week, dropping afternoon
humidities below 30% in most areas. High temperatures trend lower
mid to late next week as moisture increases.
The wetter period mid to late next week will be more of a
"transitional pattern" as opposed to a traditional monsoon surge so
breezy south winds of 10 to 20 mph will become commonplace in the
afternoon hours. Given fast storm motions, widespread wetting
rainfall will be favored for areas north of I-40 late week, with
lesser chances south of I-40.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  56  85  56  86 /  20   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  43  82  41  82 /  30   5   0   0
Cuba............................  49  80  51  81 /  30   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  50  83  49  84 /  20   0   0   0
El Morro........................  50  79  51  81 /  20   5   0   5
Grants..........................  50  83  51  85 /  20   5   5   5
Quemado.........................  50  80  51  83 /  10   0   0   5
Magdalena.......................  54  81  57  83 /  40  10   5   5
Datil...........................  50  79  51  80 /  20   5   5  10
Reserve.........................  50  87  51  88 /  20  10   5  10
Glenwood........................  55  90  57  91 /  20  10  10   5
Chama...........................  43  75  43  77 /  30  20   5   5
Los Alamos......................  53  77  56  79 /  40  10   0   0
Pecos...........................  50  77  51  80 /  40  10   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  48  75  50  78 /  30  10   5   0
Red River.......................  40  67  42  70 /  30  20   5   0
Angel Fire......................  35  71  36  74 /  30  20   5   0
Taos............................  47  78  47  82 /  30  10   5   0
Mora............................  45  75  46  77 /  40  20   5   5
Espanola........................  53  84  53  86 /  30   5   0   0
Santa Fe........................  53  77  56  80 /  40   5   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  52  81  53  84 /  40   5   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  61  85  64  87 /  40   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  58  88  61  89 /  40   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  58  90  60  91 /  30   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  60  88  61  90 /  40   0   0   0
Belen...........................  56  89  58  91 /  40   5   5   0
Bernalillo......................  58  88  60  90 /  40   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  56  88  57  90 /  30   0   0   0
Corrales........................  59  89  61  91 /  40   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  57  88  59  90 /  30   0   0   0
Placitas........................  56  83  59  85 /  40   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  59  88  61  90 /  40   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  59  90  62  93 /  40   5   5   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  52  80  55  82 /  40   5   0   0
Tijeras.........................  54  81  56  83 /  40   5   0   0
Edgewood........................  50  82  51  84 /  40   5   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  48  83  49  85 /  40   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  51  77  53  80 /  50  10   0   0
Mountainair.....................  51  81  54  83 /  40   5   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  51  80  54  83 /  40  10   0   5
Carrizozo.......................  56  83  59  85 /  50  10   5  10
Ruidoso.........................  51  75  55  78 /  40  20   5  20
Capulin.........................  49  75  51  80 /  20  20  10   0
Raton...........................  49  78  51  83 /  20  20   5   0
Springer........................  50  80  51  85 /  20  20   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  48  77  49  82 /  40  20   5   0
Clayton.........................  55  80  59  86 /   5  20  20   0
Roy.............................  52  77  54  85 /  30  20  20   0
Conchas.........................  57  85  60  90 /  40  20  20   0
Santa Rosa......................  55  83  56  88 /  50  20  10   0
Tucumcari.......................  55  82  59  88 /  40  20  20   0
Clovis..........................  58  83  61  90 /  40  20  20   5
Portales........................  58  83  61  90 /  40  20  20  10
Fort Sumner.....................  58  85  61  90 /  50  20  20   0
Roswell.........................  62  87  64  92 /  30  20  20   5
Picacho.........................  56  82  56  88 /  30  20  10  10
Elk.............................  53  80  55  85 /  30  20  10  10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion