Pine Level, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

383
FXUS62 KRAH 212321
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
720 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the Middle Atlantic through Monday,
then drift to near Bermuda through mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 PM Sunday...
* Slightly above normal temperatures and dry conditions.
After last nights cold fropa, high pressure has continued to build
back into the region. With daytime heating, this morning`s area of
low stratus has continued lifting and scattering out, leaving some
mostly cloudy areas still in the north. Clouds should continue to
clear throughout the afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon should
be slightly above normal, with highs expected around 80 degrees in
the north to the mid 80s in the south. Tonight, expect areas of fog
and/or low stratus to develop again, with low temperatures in the
upper 50s to the low-to-mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM Sunday...
* Another warm and dry day, with increased clouds expected.
A similar day to today is expected on Monday. Surface high pressure
will persist over central NC, allowing for a dry forecast to
continue. A shortwave trough looks to move through the region
Monday, which should allow for increased clouds throughout the day.
Maximum temperatures Monday afternoon look to stay around 80 degrees
in the north to the mid 80s in the south, before dipping back into
the upper 50s to mid 60s overnight. Areas of fog and low stratus
will be possible again in the east Monday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 PM Sunday...
On Tuesday morning, there will be two primary pieces of upper level
energy over the United States, one over Lake Superior and the second
over Colorado. These two pieces of energy will merge over the
central United States late Wednesday, strengthening an existing
surface low that will be the primary weather maker for North
Carolina through the week. While a minimal chance of rain will reach
the area Wednesday afternoon and night, a more substantial chance of
rain will arrive Thursday, with a 60% chance of rain reaching as far
east as US-1 Thursday evening and across nearly all locations Friday
afternoon as a cold front moves across the area. A bit of
uncertainty remains as to how quickly the rain shield will move east
of the region - the newest forecast has a 30-40% chance of showers
on Saturday and just a 20% chance on Sunday.
Hazards: Considering the slow movement of the system, there is a low
risk of flash flooding Thursday onward with the potential for
occasional rain for multiple days, despite the dry conditions
recently. In addition, while there is a slight chance of
thunderstorms on Thursday and Saturday, the most likely day for
thunderstorms will be Friday as that will be the day with the
greatest instability. Considering the strength of the accompanying
upper level system, Friday could have some strong to severe
thunderstorms, although the Storm Prediction Center currently does
not include any locations in their outlooks past Tuesday.
Temperatures: Tuesday and Wednesday appear to be the warmest days in
the extended forecast with southerly flow and minimal cloud cover,
with highs ranging from the mid 80s to the low 90s. Highs will come
down a couple degrees each day after that with the increasing rain
chances and the cold front, with highs on Saturday and Sunday likely
to range from the mid 70s to the low 80s. Lows will generally be in
the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 720 PM Sunday...
The current VFR conditions across central NC are likely to give way
once again to IFR/LIFR cigs/vsbys at all TAF sites later tonight.
Low clouds are expected to develop over north-central and northeast
sections near RDU/RWI between 07z and 09z, then spread areawide,
with IFR/LIFR conditions dominating from 09z to 13z. Surface vsbys
are likely to be MVFR to IFR at their lowest, but with tower vsbys
briefly dropping to IFR/LIFR within the lowest cigs. The low clouds
should gradually lift and disperse during the mid morning, between
13z and 15z, with a good chance of VFR conditions prevailing after
15z Mon through the end of the TAF valid period. Surface winds will
be light and mainly from the E or NE, under 10 kts.
Looking beyond 00z Tue, a few hours of sub-VFR conditions, mostly
low cigs with areas of fog, are possible 08z-13z each morning
Tuesday through Thursday, with the highest chance Thursday. It will
remain mostly dry through Wed, then the chance for scattered showers
and storms will increase in the Triad Wednesday night and across the
entire area Thursday and Friday as a deep upper level low approaches
our area from the northwest. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Helock
SHORT TERM...Helock
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Hartfield

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion