209 FXUS66 KHNX 110552 AFDHNXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1052 PM PDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.UPDATE... Updated Aviation Section.
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.KEY MESSAGES... 1. High temperatures bottom out today and tomorrow before a small rebound on Friday and Saturday. Warmer temperatures return on Tuesday.
2. 10 to 30 percent chance of thunderstorms in the Sierra Nevada today and a 10 to 25 percent chance tomorrow for thunderstorms.
3. There is a 5 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms with a 20 to 50 percent chance of any rain accumulation today in the Valley.
4. Smoke will continue to linger as the Garnet Fire continues to burn but with improving conditions, the smoke will not be as thick.
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.DISCUSSION... Today and tomorrow will be the coolest days of the week as the trough is now over the area. However, we are looking at a 10 to 30 percent chance of thunderstorms today due to the instability. In the Valley, we are seeing a 20 to 50 percent chance of rain with Merced and Mariposa having a 30 to 40 percent chance of a tenth of an inch of rain today. There is a 5 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms in the Valley mainly north of Fresno. Smoke from the Garnet Fire will continue to linger but will not be as thick thanks to improving humidity and the evolving pattern.
The trough moves out Friday as a ridge moves in bringing a slight warmup. Another trough slides in Sunday into Monday bringing a slight cooldown. Temperatures will rebound next week as a stronger ridge moves in and strengthens beginning on Tuesday.
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AVIATION... 06Z Update:
VFR conditions will prevail across the central California interior for the next 24 hours. 10 to 25 percent chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada after 18Z Thursday.
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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None.
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
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.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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JPK/EW
weather.gov/hanford
NWS HNX Office Area Forecast Discussion