Pittsfield, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

996
FXUS61 KBGM 300604
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
204 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will result in a prolonged period of dry weather
across the area through the entire week. Temperatures will
remain above normal through Tuesday, before much cooler air
moves in Wednesday and Thursday. There is a potential for some
areas of frost Wednesday and Thursday nights, especially in the
sheltered valleys.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1225 PM Update:
Surface high pressure and weak ridging continues to bring warm
weather to the area. Higher clouds extending from the tropical
activity off the Southeast coast is bringing filtered sunshine
this afternoon, instead of the full sunshine we saw yesterday.
The higher clouds will stick around tonight, especially across
Northeast PA. This combined with the warm airmass in place will
limit radiational cooling potential somewhat and result in low
temperatures that are slightly above normal. Lows are expected
to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s for most of the area.
Tuesday will be the final day of this stretch of above normal
temperatures (until closer to this weekend) with highs mainly in
the 70s. Similar to today, some higher clouds may result in
filtered sunshine (especially across Northeast PA), but these
will be gradually retreating to the east. Mostly sunny skies are
expected elsewhere, especially farther to the north in Central
NY. Then mostly clear skies are expected Tuesday night with lows
in the upper 30s to mid 40s as a Canadian high pressure system
pulls in cooler air.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
1225 PM Update:
Much cooler temperatures are expected for Wednesday and Thursday
with highs only in the 60s for the large majority of the area,
and even some upper 50s across some of higher elevations.
Otherwise, sunny skies are expected both days.
Most noteworthy, with clear skies, light winds, and a cool
airmass in place, conditions will be ideal for radiational
cooling both Wednesday and Thursday nights (especially Wednesday
night). Lows are expected to get down to the 30s for the large
majority of the area Wednesday night and mid 30s to mid 40s
Thursday night. Areas of frost will be likely Wednesday night,
especially in the sheltered valleys. There may also be a few
areas across the Catskills and northern Oneida County that may
reach freezing, or even drop below freezing Wednesday night.
Eventual frost/freeze headlines are looking increasingly likely
for at least Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
1225 PM Update:
High pressure will keep conditions dry Friday, through the
weekend, and into the beginning of next week. With the high
positioning itself to our east, a southerly return flow will
develop and as a result, temperatures will once again return to
above normal for early October. After highs in the upper 60s to
mid 70s Friday, highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees are
expected Saturday through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A high cloud shield from Tropical Storm Imelda will cover most
of the area tonight. This will help reduce radiational cooling
and limit fog development across the area. VFR conditions are
expected through the TAF period at AVP/BGM/ITH/RME. SYR could
see some patchy MVFR restrictions due to fog before sunrise, but
if restrictions do form, they should lift pretty quickly after
sunrise.
ELM is where the forecast gets very tricky as the clouds
overhead will keep temps from crashing, but they have already
fallen into the mid 40s with calm winds. The crossover temp is
39 so prolonged thick fog is not expected, but patchy ground fog
has already formed, which has dropped vis down to IFR for a
brief period before 2am. Given the current trends, thinking is
that there will be patchy IFR and lower conditions through the
overnight hours as shallow ground fog moves across the valley.
VFR conditions return after 8am, lasting through the TAF period.
Outlook...
Tuesday night through Saturday...VFR with localized VLIFR fog
possible at valley airports.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...JTC

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion