Plainfield, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

345
FXUS61 KALY 210440
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1240 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to allow for clear skies and chilly
temperatures tonight, with frost across northern areas. Sunny
and comfortable weather will be in place again on Sunday.
During the upcoming week, there will be a chance for some much
needed rainfall towards the middle of the week, with
temperatures near or slightly above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message:
- Frost Advisory in effect again tonight into Sunday Morning
  for most areas north of I-90, except a Freeze Warning for
  Hamilton County.
Discussion:
As of 156 PM EDT...Surface high pressure (around 1030 mb) is
centered north of the area over western Quebec. This high
pressure area will slowly settle southeast for later today and
into tonight, moving across the North Country and across
northern New England for Sunday.
Visible satellite imagery shows nearly completely clear skies in
place, with just some thin cirrus clouds over the Mohawk
Valley, Capital, Sacandaga and Saratoga Regions. Although
daytime temperatures are lower than the past few days, they are
still very comfortable, with readings in the upper 60s to low
70s and dewpoints in the 30s and 40s.
With the high pressure nearby and clear skies in place,
temperatures will fall easily this evening and it will be a
rather chilly night for tonight. Most areas will fall into the
upper 30s to lower 40s, although some upper 20s to mid 30s are
expected for the Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga Region and
southern Vermont. Frost Advisories are in effect for most
northern areas (except a Freeze Warning is in effect for the
central Adirondacks). Sensitive plants will need to be covered
or brought indoors, as the growing season is coming to an end
for northern regions.
On Sunday, dry, sunny and pleasant weather will continue with
high pressure still nearby. Temperatures will be a little milder
than Saturday, with valley areas back into the lower to middle
70s. A few more clouds are possible by Sunday night, but it will
still be mainly clear with a light southerly breeze, as the high
pressure departs off to the east. Lows won`t be quite as cool,
with overnight temps mainly in the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
After dry weather for the past several weeks, there will finally
be the potential for some rainfall during the long term period.
An upper level disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes will
bring the potential for some showers for Monday night into
Tuesday, especially for areas north and west of the Capital
Region. QPF doesn`t look too significant, with most areas likely
to see a under a third of an inch. NBM probability for 0.50"
inches range from about 25% over southern areas to around 50%
over the western Adirondacks.
Although high pressure may briefly return around Wednesday or
Thursday, another closed low over the Midwest will spread
towards the area for the late week. There remains uncertainty
regarding the exact timing of this feature and just how much
precip will occur, but there is at least a chance for some
additional showers for the late week with this system. Our area
has seen rainfall deficits of 1 to 3 inches over the last month
so any rainfall is much needed.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06z Monday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals as
of 12:40 AM EDT. Still expecting patchy fog/mist with IFR or lower
vsbys and possibly cigs at GFL/PSF to develop. FOg likely develops
first at GFL, while it may take until close to daybreak for fog/mist
to develop at PSF. Can`t rule out some brief patchy fog near ALB for
an hour or two around/shortly after sunrise, but confidence is too
low to mention any vsby/cig restrictions in the TAFs at this time.
Not expecting any fog at POU. Any fog/mist diminishes by 12z with
VFR conditions then expected to prevail through the remainder of the
TAF period with SCT to BKN high clouds. Winds will be light through
the rest of the night, then increase to 5-8 kt from the S/SE this
morning. Winds become light and variable after sunset at GFL/POU/PSF
this evening, but remain at 5-8 kt from the S/SE at ALB through 06z
Monday.
Outlook...
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ032-041>043-
     083-084.
     Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ033.
MA...None.
VT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Main

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion