Pleasant Lane, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

072
FXUS62 KCAE 200553
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
153 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and storms today, with high pressure beginning
to build over the area this weekend. Above average temperatures
can also be expected through the weekend. Dry conditions
continue to start off the work week, then rain chances will be
on the increase from mid-week onward.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Isolated showers and storms develop this afternoon.
Shortwave trough axis is shifting eastward today with mostly
zonal flow developing aloft. Heights at 500mb will be very
similar to yesterday with blended guidance nearly identical with
highs, in the upper 80s to low 90s. Satellite derived PWAT
estimates currently around 1.3 to 1.4 inches with HREF mean
indicating a slight increase into today to around an inch and a
half. At the surface, guidance is consistent in a trough across
much of the forecast area. While yesterday, showers were focused
across the southern portion of the forecast area where low
level moisture was highest, low level moisture is a bit more
widespread today, evident by higher theta-e values across the
entire area. Instability higher today compared to yesterday over
the area with HREF probability of sbCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg
around 50-60%. As a result, do expect higher coverage of diurnal
showers with more storms today as well. Forcing overall still
remains limited with zonal flow and weak low level convergence
so coverage still isolated to widely scattered. Weak shear and
lapse rates so not expecting storms to become severe. Similar
lows tonight in the mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Warm and mainly dry conditions continue into early this week.
Although the center of the surface ridge north of the area will
be moving off the New England coast into Monday, a weak ridge
axis should still be situated east of the Appalachians. This
should still keep a light northeasterly wind pattern across the
forecast area on Sunday, then winds will begin to turn more
easterly Monday as that axis shifts off to the east. Weak upper
ridge across the region should help to keep rainfall chances
relatively low, so a dry forecast remains on tap into early in
the week. Daytime high temperatures will be slightly above
normal, with readings in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows
still slightly below normal, with temperatures falling into the
middle 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Continued dry on Tuesday.
- Rain chances return for mid to late week.
- Above normal temperatures through Thursday, then turning
  cooler.
An upper trough will be setting up west of the area on Tuesday,
then tracking eastward Wednesday and into the end of the week.
Ahead of the trough on Tuesday, the upper ridge should still
remain strong enough to inhibit any rainfall for most of the
area. Falling heights along with southerly winds bringing an
increase in deeper moisture, will finally bring an increase in
rain chances from Wednesday evening onward. Temperatures in the
long term are still somewhat of an uncertainty as the ensemble
spreads are still quite large. This uncertainty is in part due
to the amount of cloud cover and rain we may get.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Visibility Restrictions Possible Before Sunrise
Mostly clear skies over the terminals early this morning leading
to similar conditions to yesterday morning. Low level moisture
remains sufficient enough to support fog development in the next
several hours, which is supported by hires guidance and the
LAMP. Probabilities are generally higher for MVFR visibility
restrictions at the Columbia terminals so have continued the
TEMPO group for CAE/CUB. Potential is higher for IFR visibility
restrictions at AGS/OGB. Any fog that does develop this morning
should dissipate not long after sunrise. Deep layer moisture
remains sufficient enough today with increased instability to
support thunderstorms developing this afternoon. For now have
included a prob30 group at all the terminals to account for this
possibility.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A relatively dry air mass will hinder
widespread rainfall and restrictions through early next week.
However short periods of early morning fog/stratus remains
possible at AGS and OGB through the weekend. Towards the end of
the extended, moisture increases which will lead to increasing
chances for rain and widespread restrictions.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion