647 FXUS64 KMEG 301553 AFDMEGArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1053 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1052 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
- High pressure will bring a continuation of dry weather through the upcoming weekend.
- Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees through Thursday and the mid to upper 80s Friday into early next week.
- Slight chances for showers will creep back into the region early next week.
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.DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Monday) Issued at 1052 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
High pressure remains over the area with clear skies and light winds. Temps are quickly climbing above the 80 degree mark on there way into the upper 80s to near 90 this afternoon.
High pressure will continue across the eastern CONUS as Hurricane Imelda tracks out to sea over the next couple of days. Expect highs in the upper 80s to near 90 to continue for the next few days with lows in the 60s. Winds will be light. We will see a slight uptick in humidity levels on Wednesday as dewpoints temporarily climb into the mid 60s. A shower might pop up but none of the CAMs are particularly aggressive with any precip attm given the fairly dry column. Dewpoints will drop back into the 50s by Thursday and continue into the weekend. As high pressure aloft weakens slightly perhaps temps will be a couple of degrees cooler from Friday onward. However, given the dry airmass, it would not be surprising if temps are closer to the NBM90 which would basically be a continuation of the upper 80s to near 90.
Models are still developing a weak upper low along the northern Gulf Coast by this weekend. Latest ensembles are indicating a surge of moisture heading north early next week along with a chance of showers.
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.AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 550 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR conditions continue through the current TAF period. Northeasterly winds will increase to 5 to 10 kts in the afternoon and will drop back below 5 kts after 00Z.
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.FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1052 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Fire weather danger will remain low for the near term as minimum relative humidity values remain between 35 and 45 percent through the rest of the week. Additionally, light 20 ft winds are expected to persist. No wetting rains are in the forecast through at least this upcoming weekend, which will allow fuels to dry and fire danger to begin to increase.
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.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. &&
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PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...CMA
NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion