Plumerville, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

755
FXUS64 KLZK 241110 AAA
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
610 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
-Some flash flood threat continues into the overnight hours
-A strong/briefly severe thunderstorm remains possible overnight into
midday Wed...mainly across SRN/SERN sections
-Drier and calmer conditions expected late this week into early next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Scattered convection is continuing late this Tue evening as
SHRA/TSRA activity fires along/just behind an outflow dropping south
across central to SRN sections of the state. The primary cold front
is situated over far NWRN AR into ERN OK...which is slowly
progressing SE. Some SVR threat remains late this evening and
potentially into the overnight hrs...primarily where best overlap of
ML CAPE and bulk SHR exists over SWRN sections ahead of the initial
convection. Over time however...this instability has been weakening.
Even so...SRN/SERN sections will still see some potential for a
strong/SVR storm overnight.
The threat for heavy rainfall remains however as the convection
behind the initial convective line moves back over some areas that
have already seen very heavy rainfall recently. This activity was
becoming more widespread along/ahead of the slowly SEWD progressing
cold front across WRN sections. Eventually...the front will allow
colder/more stable air to start pushing this convection further
E/SE...but will have to pay close attention to the flash flood
threat across WRN sections...especially where very heavy rainfall
has already been seen recently.
By the daylight hrs Wed morning...the cold front will start to gain
SEWD momentum an the upper level disturbance drops SE into the
state...eventually pushing the organized convection further SE
during the daytime hrs Wed. Some strong to briefly SVR convection
may be seen ahead of the front across SERN sections early...at least
until the main surge of the front drops SE by around midday. There
may still be a heavy rain threat...especially right before the front
pushes through. However...the SRN portion of the state has remained
fairly dry relative to other areas of the state recently...so it may
take a bit more rainfall to cause some significant issues flooding
wise. May cancel the Flood Watch by sunrise Wed as well due to the
threat for widespread heavy rainfall decreasing in the watch area.
Precip chances will continue behind the front...under the main upper
shortwave that will slowly drop SE Wed into Thu...before finally
shifting east by late this week. This upper shortwave looks to break
off from the main upper flow...developing into a closed upper low to
the east of AR. With AR being on the west side of this upper
low...NRLY flow aloft will be seen over AR late this week through
the weekend. This will keep the forecast mainly dry...though temps
look to warm back above normal into the early part of next week as
an upper ridge starts moving back over the region near the end of
the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Most of the convection is now limited to SRN sections of the
state. However...new convection looks to redevelop along the cold
front currently to the west...with new activity developing later
this morning across southwest into central sections. This
activity will then drop SE this afternoon...with the strongest
activity moving east of the state by late this afternoon.
Expecting MVFR or lower conditions under the most intense activity
today...though some patchy fog was noted this morning over
NRN/NWRN sections. Some improving conditions will be seen late in
the forecast period...though some spotty rain will remain possible
into tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     80  61  80  55 /  50  30  30  10
Camden AR         81  63  81  59 /  90  10  30   0
Harrison AR       74  58  75  53 /  60  20  10   0
Hot Springs AR    81  62  80  58 /  60  10  30  10
Little Rock   AR  81  65  79  61 /  50  10  20  10
Monticello AR     82  66  84  61 /  90  20  20   0
Mount Ida AR      81  61  79  57 /  40  10  20   0
Mountain Home AR  77  59  78  54 /  60  30  10   0
Newport AR        81  64  79  58 /  50  30  20  10
Pine Bluff AR     82  64  80  59 /  80  20  20  10
Russellville AR   82  62  80  58 /  30  10  20   0
Searcy AR         81  63  80  58 /  50  20  20  10
Stuttgart AR      81  65  80  60 /  60  20  20  10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...62

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion