Ponce Inlet, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

707
FXUS62 KMLB 291128
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
728 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
- Prolonged, dangerous beach and marine conditions this week;
  life-threatening rip currents, high surf with breaking waves of
  6 to 10 feet, and moderate beach erosion expected
- Gusty conditions with Imelda`s closest approach today; breezy to
  windy conditions, with higher gusts at the coast, through much
  of this week
- Periods of scattered showers, especially at the immediate coast,
  as Tropical Storm Imelda passes offshore; instances of locally
  heavy rainfall remain possible
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Today-Tonight...Tropical Storm Imelda remains over the Bahamas prior
to sunrise this morning. The storm is forecast to move northward
today, paralleling the east coast of Florida, before making a fairly
sharp right turn into the Atlantic overnight. Imelda is expected to
remain far enough offshore to limit overall impacts to the local
area. However, we will see some impacts, mainly in the form of windy
northerly winds and dangerous beach and marine conditions.
Generally northerly winds will begin to increase early this morning,
becoming breezy to windy by this afternoon. Sustained wind speeds of
up to 20-30 mph are forecast along the coast, with wind gusts up to
40 mph. A Wind Advisory remains in effect from 8 AM this morning
through late tonight for all coastal counties of east central
Florida (Volusia to Martin). Inland, breezy winds are expected up to
15-20 mph, with gusts to around 30 mph. Gusty winds will blow around
unsecured objects, so be sure to secure any loose outdoor furniture
or holiday decorations. Winds will begin to slacken this evening
into the overnight hours, but remain breezy, especially along the
coast, out of the northwest. Winds will help to moderate
temperatures today, with highs near to slightly below normal in the
mid-80s.
Scattered showers are forecast to move onshore today in far outer
bands of Imelda. Multiple rounds of quick-moving showers will lead
to rainfall accumulations around 1". However, any training bands of
heavier showers could lead to localized higher totals and minor
flooding. Drier air aloft will limit the threat for lightning.
Although, isolated embedded strikes cannot be ruled out, especially
along the coast. PoPs today 50-70% for coastal areas and 40-50% over
the interior. As Imelda moves father from the coast overnight, PoPs
decrease to 30-50% east of Orlando. Shower bands may locally enhance
wind gusts. Lingering moist air at the surface will keep overnight
lows in the mid-70s.
Dangerous beach and boating conditions are rapidly developing this
morning, as Tropical Storm Imelda better organizes and lifts
northward. Windy conditions, a very high risk for rip currents,
moderate beach erosion, and breaking waves of 6-10 ft in the surf
zone are all forecast. Use caution on the sand due to wave runup
along the beach and swimmers should remain out of the water. A
High Risk of rip currents and a High Surf Advisory are in effect.
Tuesday...An upper level trough remains over the Southeast US
Tuesday, as Tropical Storm Imelda, then forecast to be a
hurricane, begins to pick up speed as it moves eastward into the
Atlantic. Drier air (PWATs 1.6-1.75") will start to advect into
the local area from continued northerly winds on the back side of
Imelda. PoPs will decrease accordingly. Although, scattered
showers will remain possible, mainly east of I-95. PoPs generally
30-50% area-wide. Subsidence and very dry air in the mid and upper
levels will continue to limit the chance for any lightning, but a
few strikes will remain possible along the coast.
Dangerous beach conditions will persist, with a High Risk of rip
currents and a High Surf advisory continuing. Northerly winds will
also remain breezy and gusty, though not quite as strong as Monday
afternoon. Winds are forecast around 15-20 mph inland and 20-25
mph along the coast, with gusts up to 30 mph. The strongest winds
look to be along the Volusia County and northern Space coasts,
closest to Imelda. For now, winds look to remain just below Wind
Advisory criteria along the coast, but will need to monitor in
future updates. High temperatures will remain in the 80s, as lows
fall into the lower 70s.
Wednesday-Sunday...A series of upper and mid-level troughs will
dig through the Southeast, as strong high pressure develops over
the northern portion of the eastern US, into late week. Northerly
flow persists Wednesday, before veering onshore through the
remainder of the week and into the weekend. Breezy to windy
conditions will continue during the afternoons, due to the tight
pressure gradient with the strong ridge to the north. The
strongest winds will continue to be along the coast.
Dry air (PWATs 1.5-1.6") will lead to below normal shower chances
Wednesday (PoPs 20-40%) and a continued lower chance for any
lightning strikes. However, higher moisture returns late week and
into the weekend, as winds veer onshore. PoPs return to near
normal (40-60%) and continue that way through the period. By
Friday, modest moisture return in the mid and upper levels will
help to increase lightning chances, though they will remain fairly
limited. Near to slightly below normal temperatures are forecast,
with highs in the lower to mid-80s.
Strong winds and incoming large, long period swells from distant
Major Hurricane Humberto will maintain hazardous seas and beach
conditions into the weekend. While the current High Risk of rip
currents and High Surf Advisory are set to expire Wednesday night,
it is likely that they will need to be extended at least through
the end of the work week, if not the weekend. Residents and
visitors should remain out of the water.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Dangerous boating conditions are expected to rapidly develop this
morning, as Tropical Storm Imelda is forecast to better organize
and lift northward out of the Bahamas, while paralleling the east
coast of Florida. The forecast track for Imelda has shifted far
enough eastward to remain out of the local Atlantic waters.
However, Tropical Storm conditions are still expected into late
tonight, with winds 25-35 kts and gusts up to 40 kts well
offshore. Seas today are expected to build to up to 12-17 ft.
Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for all of the local
Atlantic waters into late tonight.
Imelda is forecast to veer eastward and move into the Atlantic
Tuesday. However, strong northerly winds will continue locally,
with winds up to 20-30 kts. High pressure building in over the
northern US will maintain breezy to windy (15-25 kts) conditions
through the remainder of the week and into the weekend, as winds
veer onshore. These winds, combined with large, long period swells
from distant Major Hurricane Humberto, will limit the reduction in
wave heights. Seas are forecast to remain up to 10-12 ft through
at least Friday. Thus, have issued a Small Craft Advisory
following the current Tropical Storm Warning through early
Thursday morning. However, this will likely need to be extended,
possibly through the weekend.
Bands of gusty showers, with embedded isolated lightning strikes,
are expected today as Imelda makes its closest approach. Drier air
behind the storm will reduce rain chances Wednesday, before
moisture returns late week and into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 700 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Bouncy VFR to MVFR CIGs continue this morning across the
terminals, with northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. VCSH possible today
as outer rain bands from Tropical Storm Imelda move onshore and
across the terminals. Confidence in timing remains too low to add
TEMPOs, but will monitor and amend as needed. North-northeast
winds increase to 10 to 20 knots sustained, with gusts to 30 knots
possible. Winds diminish slightly into the overnight hours,
becoming more north-northwesterly.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  84  75  83  72 /  70  50  60  40
MCO  87  75  86  72 /  50  20  40  20
MLB  86  75  86  74 /  60  50  50  40
VRB  86  74  88  73 /  60  40  50  30
LEE  87  73  86  71 /  50  10  30  20
SFB  86  74  86  72 /  60  30  40  30
ORL  86  75  86  73 /  50  20  40  20
FPR  86  73  88  72 /  60  30  50  30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ041-141-154-159-164-
     247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.
High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.
AM...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EDT Thursday for
     AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion