Poulan, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

186
FXUS62 KTAE 281822
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
222 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
As Tropical Storm Imelda continue to lift northward parallel to
the Florida East Coast, increased moisture will continue to pivot
in from the east. This will lead to a few showers and maybe a
thunderstorm this afternoon, but substantial impacts are not
anticipated. Overnight tonight, with the increased low-level
moisture, expect a stratus deck with some patchy fog to move in
from the east and northeast. Dense fog is not expected, but where
winds go light or calm overnight, some fog may develop in lower-
lying areas. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
For Monday, the moist east flow continues around Imelda`s northern
side, which will bring some isolated to scattered showers and
maybe a storm or two to our area, mainly for south Georgia and
the Florida Big Bend. Significant impacts are not expected.
Tomorrow`s high temperatures have a higher bust potential than
normal. With stronger northeasterly flow, morning stratus decks
can linger a bit longer than forecast, resulting in an
over-forecast of high temperatures. Because of this, have nudged
highs over south Georgia down a couple degrees from NBM guidance
with lower 80s expected there and mid to upper 80s elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
As Imelda lifts north to about the latitude of the Daytona Beach
by Tuesday morning then turns sharply east, our moisture influx
will decrease substantially and some drier air filters back in.
This will effectively shut off our rain chances Tuesday and
Wednesday. A backdoor cold front slips its way through our area on
Wednesday on the backside of Imelda, and a large, sprawling area
of high pressure builds into the eastern US. As the front stalls
over the northern or central Gulf, the pressure gradient between
the high to our north and the front to our south will tighten,
leading to some breezy conditions by the latter half of the week.
Gusts around 20-30 mph appear likely across the area late in the
week. In addition, the chance for scattered showers returns as
well due to the placement of the front with rain chances around
20-30% for the most part. Cooler air will also begin to filter
into the area late in the week.
Depending on the exact placement of the high to our north and
northeast, we may also set ourselves up for a cold air damming
event into our area. If this happens, we`ll have cool
northeasterly flow below moist southwesterly flow, which usually
results in a cool, cloudy, and sometimes showery setup. As a
result, there is still wide variations in temperature forecasts
for the end of the week with the 10th percentile of guidance
advertising low to mid 70s for highs while the 90th percentile has
mid to upper 80s. Low temperatures don`t have as much variation,
but still could range anywhere from the upper 50s to the mid 60s.
Expect changes to this part of the forecast later in the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
A light to moderate northeasterly breeze is forecast to prevail
through the TAF period. VFR conditions are expected through the
afternoon and into the evening before a surge of easterly winds
brings in a stratus deck across Georgia and the Florida Big Bend.
This leads to a period of IFR to perhaps LIFR conditions, although
confidence wasn`t high enough to go that low quite yet. Also, there
are some indications for some lower visibility for KVLD and KABY
early Monday morning, but the NE breeze should limit that potential
at this time. Ceilings are forecast to slowly improve Monday
morning, but there remains some uncertainty with just how long the
stratus deck will linger Monday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Nocturnal northeasterly surges are expected the next few nights
with cautionary conditions expected. However, more impactful
marine conditions return mid to late week. There is a high chance
(60-80%) of exceeding Small Craft Advisory thresholds from
Wednesday onward with a low chance (10-20%) of gale-force gusts
over our waters.
From CWF Synopsis: As Tropical Storm Imelda lifts northward the
east of Florida, moderate northeasterly breezes will continue over
the waters for the next few days with nocturnal surges bringing
some cautionary conditions to the waters. As Imelda turns sharply
east over the western Atlantic, a backdoor cold front will slip
through the marine area Wednesday into Thursday with a large
sprawling high in its wake. The tightening pressure gradient
between these two features will result in likely strong advisory-
level winds out of the east to northeast to close out the week.
Seas will also gradually build through the week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm are possible this
afternoon and again Monday afternoon, mainly over south Georgia and
the Florida Big Bend. Pockets of high dispersions are possible over
the next few days as transport winds increase out of the east to
northeast around 10-20 mph. While recent rains have helped quell
some fire weather concerns, conditions will dry out heading further
into next week with increasing winds.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Significant rainfall is not expected over the next five days. Once
we get to next weekend, much depends on the position of the front
over the northern Gulf. While current forecasts keep the heaviest
rain offshore late week into the weekend, there is a low chance
that some of the heavier rain sneaks onshore near the coast. This
part of the forecast is still low confidence at this point. In the
meantime, drought conditions and low flows on area rivers
continue.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   92  70  85  69 /   0   0  30  20
Panama City   91  71  88  69 /   0   0  10  10
Dothan        89  68  84  67 /   0   0  10  10
Albany        89  70  82  69 /   0   0  20  10
Valdosta      90  70  84  69 /   0  10  40  10
Cross City    91  70  89  70 /  20  10  40  10
Apalachicola  87  71  85  70 /   0  10  20  20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion