Prairie View, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

513
FXUS63 KGID 130941
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
441 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another warm day today with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
- Scattered thunderstorms possible (15-40%) west of Highway 183 during
  the late afternoon-evening hours, shower/storms become
  widespread (30-75%) late Saturday night-Sunday morning as
  showers move from west to east.
- Scattered thunderstorm development possible (20-50%) along a
  cold front Sunday afternoon-evening. A few of these could be
  strong to marginally severe.
- Scattered thunderstorm chances (30-70%) return Tuesday through
  the end of the forecast period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 435 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Today through Sunday...
Temperatures this morning are currently sitting in the mid 60s to
mid 70s under mostly clear skies. An upper level trough resides over
the Rockies, with southwesterly flow over the area. The
southwesterly flow will result in another warm day across the area
as highs climb into the upper 80s to low 90s. The first wave of
energy within the broader troughing will move into the plains during
the afternoon-evening hours, which will support the development of
scattered thunderstorms across southwestern Nebraska (15-40% PoPs).
Meager instability (CAPE < 1000 J/Kg) and weak shear (15-20kts)
keeps severe weather concerns low, but can`t rule out a storm
capable of gusty winds given the forecast soundings showing an
inverted V profile.
The broader trough aloft will become negatively tilted during the
late evening-early overnight hours. This will support more
widespread shower/thunderstorm development along the surface low,
mainly for areas along/west of Highway 183. As the negatively tilted
trough moves into the Plains early Sunday morning, a band of north-
south oriented showers/storms will develop along the CO/NE/KS
border. This band/line of showers gradually shifts east throughout
the morning, bringing fairly widespread chances (40-70%) for rain to
the area. There remains some uncertainty on the timing of this band,
which results in uncertainty on both temperatures and
afternoon/evening thunderstorm potential. Areas west of Highway 183
are the most likely to see some clearing during the afternoon hours,
which will result in CAPE values reaching 1000-2000 J/Kg. Assuming
some clearing happens, Scattered thunderstorm development is
possible along the cold front situated across western portions of
the area. CAPE values combined with 30-40kts of shear would support
a few strong-severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail
and damaging wind gusts. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will
decrease after sunset as instability wanes. The aforementioned
cold front will push through the area Sunday night, with lows in
the mid 50s to low 60s.
Monday and Tuesday...
Southwesterly flow builds back over the area on Monday as a
shortwave trough move into the Rockies. Highs on Monday will be in
the 80s under mostly sunny skies. A cold front pushes into the
northern Nebraska on Tuesday with highs in the 80s across the
forecast area. As a shortwave trough moves into the plains on
Tuesday, it will aid thunderstorm development along the cold front.
These showers/storms are expected to move southeast during the
evening-overnight hours, bringing another chance (40-70%) for
showers/storms to the area.
Wednesday Onwards...
Troughing is expected to move over the area Wednesday onwards,
resulting cooler temperatures, in the 70s. Increasing model spread
brings higher levels of uncertainty for how long this cooldown will
last. This broad/slow troughing combined with increasing spread
results in scattered chances (30-60%) for precipitation through the
rest of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
VFR conditions expected through TAF period. LLWS will persist
overnight, but dissipate after sunrise. Southerly winds will
increase during the mid-morning hours, peaking in the afternoon
with sustained winds around 15kts and gusts of 20-25kts. Winds
weaken around sunset with gusts falling below 15kts. FEW-SCT
high level clouds will become BKN-OVC during the afternoon and
persist through the end of the TAF period.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion