Prince Frederick, Maryland Weather Forecast Discussion

785
FXUS61 KLWX 250117
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
917 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Ahead of a cold front, daily shower and thunderstorm chances
continue through Thursday night. This frontal system crosses
through by early Friday before stalling to the south and east
of the area this weekend. Some lingering shower chances exist
across southern portions of the forecast area. By early next
week, high pressure builds over eastern Canada while disturbed
weather over the Bahamas lifts northward over the western
Atlantic.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 9 PM, radar imagery shows a cluster of showers and storms
moving across Northeast Maryland. Those showers and storms
should continue to lift off toward the northeast, moving out of
the area within the next 1-2 hours. To the west of this
activity, some breaks in the cloud cover have developed across
Northern Maryland and the West Virginia Panhandle. This has
enabled patchy fog and mist to form across those areas. Further
to the south across Central Virginia, additional very light
showers are forming. These showers should continue to lift off
toward the northeast over the course of the night.
Synoptically speaking, the region is situated downstream of a
positively tilted trough which extends from the Southern Plains
northeastward toward the Great Lakes. Deep and highly anomalous
moisture is being drawn northward into the area ahead of this
trough, as evidenced by the 00z IAD sounding which had a PWAT
value of 1.93 inches. Light showers will remain possible on and
off through the night within the saturated airmass, with patchy
fog also possible in locations that see brief breaks in the
cloud cover. The highest coverage of showers (and potentially
even a few thunderstorms) is expected to occur during the
second half of the night as a disturbance moving through the
frontside of the trough approaches from the southwest. The rich
low-level moisture in place (dewpoints in the 60s and lower
70s) will keep temperatures warm overnight, with lows ranging
from the mid 60s to the lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The upstream longwave trough is expected to make its eastward
push on Thursday. While the northern extent of the trough
remains progressive, the southern flank may cut off near the
Mid-South region. Increasing moisture ahead of this trough and
accompanying cold front will make for another wet day across the
area. Showers are expected during the morning hours which may
leave behind additional cloud cover to fend off during peak
diurnal heating. As such, while convective chances should be
higher owing to the trough/front combo, remnant cloud cover may
again be an issue. If storms were to materialize, ample vertical
shear is present to foster the development of a few strong to
severe thunderstorms. Consequently, a Marginal risk for severe
weather remains for all locations east of the Alleghenies.
Damaging winds are the most likely threat if storms indeed
materialize. Forecast high temperatures rise into the upper 70s
to low 80s, with 60s to low 70s for the mountains.
The frontal system passes through late Thursday night which will
keep showers around through the overnight period. The cool spot
overnight should be behind the front where widespread upper 50s
are likely along and west of the Blue Ridge.
By Friday morning, the cold front is forecast to be just east of
the Chesapeake Bay. A few lingering morning showers are possible
over southern Maryland. Otherwise, expect more sunshine in the
forecast, particularly later in the day. With the frontal zone
just off to the south, a few afternoon showers cannot be ruled
out south of I-66. High temperatures remain fairly close to
Thursday`s readings. Heading into the night, forecast lows will
be in the low/mid 60s, with mid/upper 50s along and west of
I-81.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Persistent upper level troughing remains over the east coast
throughout the long term period. At the surface, a stationary
front remains off shore along the east coast as surface high
pressure builds in from the Great Lakes. This will yield daily
precipitation chances as multiple waves of low pressure track
along the nearby frontal boundary. Additionally, mostly cloudy
skies can be expected each day. Conditions will dry up on
Tuesday as the front slowly dissipates and tracks farther away.
Temperatures will be in the 70s each day with higher elevations
staying in the 60s. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s for
those east of the Blue Ridge and 50s for those along and west.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of around 9 PM, radar shows an area of heavier downpours
across Northeast Maryland, which has impacted BWI and MTN over
the past hour. This activity should move out shortly. Behind
that activity most locations are dry for the moment, although
some lighter showers are forming across Central Virginia. A more
widespread round of showers is expected during the second half
of the night as a disturbance approaches from the southwest. A
brief rumble of thunder can`t be ruled out with this activity,
but chances appear too low to justify a PROB30 group at the
moment. Otherwise, prevailing VFR conditions are expected over
the next few hours. Sub-VFR ceilings return during the second
half of the night, with many locations going IFR for several
hours late tonight/tomorrow morning.
Southerly wind gusts increase to around 10 to 15 knots on
Thursday afternoon ahead of the slow approaching cold front. VFR
conditions are likely to return for the afternoon hours before
another round of showers and possible thunderstorms move in from
the west. Like today, uncertainty is on the higher side given
expected cloud cover. Some restrictions are possible with any
frontal convection. Winds shift to west-northwesterly behind the
front with VFR conditions likely on Friday.
Winds remain light Saturday and Sunday, blowing up to 10 knots in
the afternoon out of the northeast. Winds become light and variable
each night. VFR conditions are expected each day with precipitation
chances leading to possible deterioration in conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
While marine wind gusts are largely topping out around 5 to 10
knots, some uptick is likely this evening into the overnight
period. Southerly channeling effects could bring some sites
close to advisory criteria. Marine Weather Statements or Small
Craft Advisories may be needed as this uptick occurs.
Southerly winds remain near advisory criteria on Thursday, but
the latest guidance keeps gusts just short (around 15 knots or
so). Cold frontal convection may impact the waters Thursday
evening which may warrant a Special Marine Warning or two. Any
more intense convection should wane into Thursday night. Post-
frontal west to northwesterly winds overspread the waters on
Friday with gusts to around 10 knots.
Winds remain out of the northeast both Saturday and Sunday and are
expected to be light, blowing less than 10 knots. No marine hazards
are expected at this time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Anomalies are forecast to remain slightly elevated through Thursday,
so additional near minor flooding is possible at sensitive
locations such as Annapolis. This is most likely with the
higher daily tide cycle in the afternoon and evening, with the
strongest onshore flow and highest anomalies possible on
Thursday into Friday.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BRO
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...BRO
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/BRO/KJP
MARINE...AVS/BRO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion