Prince Frederick, Maryland Weather Forecast Discussion

499
FXUS61 KLWX 200053
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
853 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will drift south and east of the area
this evening with a backdoor cold front set to push through
tonight. The front will stall across southwestern Virginia
Saturday as high pressure wedges south from northern New
England. Wedging high pressure will remain overhead Sunday with
a warm front set to cross the Alleghenies Monday into Tuesday.
This front, combined with low pressure off the North Carolina
coast, will bring renewed precipitation chances to the region
heading into the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Just a few showers remain across far northern Maryland and the
West Virginia Panhandle this evening. Any remaining showers
should dissipate over the next couple hours, resulting in dry
conditions overnight. Initially light to calm winds will turn
out of the north to northeast late tonight as a backdoor cold
front moves through. Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s
to the mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will continue to sink south of the area before
stalling over southwestern Virginia on Saturday. Meanwhile,
broad high pressure over eastern Canada will wedge its way south
bending the stalled front back across the Alleghenies and
Appalachians Saturday night into Sunday. Overall, the weekend
will be dry for most of the forecast area outside of areas west
of the Blue Ridge (especially along and west of the Alleghenies)
where the stalled front will reside. Latest hi-res CAMS and
synoptic guidance also show a low amplitude but negative tilt
shortwave disturbance riding along the stalled boundary Saturday
afternoon into Saturday evening. This will further enhance
probabilities of precipitation (25-50 percent) across portions
of the Shenandaoh Valley and Allegheny Mountains. Even with that
said, coverage of any shower and thunderstorm activity will
likely remain scattered given the residual high pressure wedge
nearby. Any rain that we do see will be welcomed especially over
the mountains given the current moderate to severe drought
conditions, though some slow-moving downpours are possible given
weak/veering upslope flow. Highs Saturday will be back around
normal for this time of year in the upper 70s and low 80s (low
to mid 70s mountains). Lows Saturday night will fall back into
the upper 50s and low 60s as more of a maritime airmass takes
hold especially east of the Blue Ridge. With wedging high
pressure and a front nearby, expect a subtle pressure gradient
over the region. This will result in wind gusts of 10 to 20 mph
mainly over the ridges and near the waters.
Wedging high pressure over northern New England and the Gulf of
Maine will remain locked east of the Appalachians Sunday. Onshore
flow will ensue as a result leading to cooler temperatures and
increased low-level clouds across the region. Some patchy
drizzle and light shower activity also cannot be ruled out
especially east of the Blue Ridge. Highs Sunday will range from
the low to mid 70s across the mountains and northeast/central MD
to upper 70s across central VA. The stratus looks to hold tough
across most of the area throughout the day likely eroding
across central and eastern VA Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening. Meanwhile, the stalled front will remain draped over
the Alleghenies eventually lifting north and east as a warm
front Monday for the upcoming workweek.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Daily precipitation chances return next week as a cold front
approaches from the Great Lakes region. Surface high pressure slowly
shifts eastward offshore Monday with southerly flow ushering in
warmer temperatures and increased moisture. High temperatures on
Monday and Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with higher
elevations staying in the low 70s. The aforementioned cold front
drops through the forecast area on Wednesday and remains to our south
on Thursday as high pressure builds to our north. The nearby front
will yield continued precipitation chances each day and slightly
cooler temperatures. High temperatures cool slightly on Wednesday
with highs on Thursday staying in the 60s and 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday. Surface
high pressure will gradually slide south and east of the area by this
evening with a moisture-starved backdoor cold front set to cross
tonight. Winds will shift to the north and northeast tonight
before turning easterly Saturday as the front sinks south of the
region. With a subtle pressure gradient in place between the
front stalling to the south of the area and high pressure to the
north, expect gusts between 10-15 kts Saturday afternoon.
Sub-VFR conditions look to return as early as Saturday night
as onshore flow increases. A few showers and thunderstorms may
develop Saturday afternoon and evening west of CHO and south of
MRB (i.e. away from most if not all TAF sites). Low-level
clouds (i.e stratus) will lead to sub-VFR conditions especially
at terminals east of the Blue Ridge Sunday into Sunday night.
Some light drizzle and showers cannot be ruled out, although
confidence is low.
South winds on Monday shift to southwest on Tuesday, blowing around
5 to 10 knots each afternoon. Sub-VFR conditions are possible at MRB
and CHO on Monday as showers and thunderstorms are possible along
and west of the Blue Ridge. There is a chance for showers and
thunderstorms across all terminals on Tuesday with sub-VFR
conditions possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through this evening as high
pressure slides south and east of the waters. A moisture-starved
backdoor cold front will cross the waters later this evening
into tonight shifting the winds back to a northeast and
easterly direction. This may lead to brief SCA level northerly
channeling across the northern and middle portions of the
Chesapeake Bay early Saturday morning into Saturday midday. An
additional period of SCA conditions are possible over the open
waters of the Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac River late
Saturday night into Sunday with increased onshore easterly flow.
Southerly channeling will lead to possible SCA criteria winds Monday
night into Tuesday morning. Additionally, there is a chance of
showers and thunderstorms across the waters on Tuesday. Winds remain
out of the south both days.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
North/northeasterly winds will lead to decreasing tidal
anomalies through Saturday. Sensitive locations including
Annapolis, Straits Point, and Alexandria may reach action stage
during the higher tide cycles, but are not expected to reach
minor flood stage. Tide levels may increase by Sunday as onshore
easterly flow increases.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DHOF/EST
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...DHOF/EST
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/DHOF/EST
MARINE...AVS/DHOF/EST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion